📰 10-Year US Treasury Yield Hits 20-Year High; Gold Drops Nearly 4%

Key Snapshot

· 🕊️ Trump says the US will “soon” win the war against Iran and “this war will end soon”, denying he ever offered sanctions relief in exchange for Iranian nuclear concessions.

· 📊 The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4.88 bps to 5.23%, the highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield touched 5.5829% intraday.

· 📉 All three major US equity indices declined. Dow Jones fell 0.67%, S&P 500 down 0.77%, Nasdaq lost 0.92%. Gold tumbled 3.52% and silver dropped 4.71%.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

- 10-Year US Treasury yield hits highest mark since 2007: The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed 4.88 bps to 5.23%, touching an intraday peak of 5.2741%. The 30-year yield hit 5.5829% during trading before settling at 5.5556%. → Dow Jones -0.67% at 51481.51; S&P 500 -0.77% at 7683.69; Nasdaq -0.92% at 26820.38.

Exclusive View

The 10-year Treasury yield breached 5.23% and the 30-year rate hit 5.58%. The relentless rise in long-dated yields has become the core factor weighing on all asset classes. Gold fell 3.52% and silver lost 4.71% in a single session, with non-yielding assets bearing the brunt of surging interest rates.

II. Overnight Market Action

—— US Equities: Dow Jones -0.67% at 51481.51; S&P 500 -0.77% at 7683.69; Nasdaq -0.92% at 26820.38.

—— European Equities: Pan-European STOXX 600 flat at 638.68. UK FTSE 100 -0.1%, German DAX -0.13%, French CAC 40 edged up 0.01%.

—— Fixed Income: 10-year US Treasury yield +4.88 bps to 5.23%, intraday high 5.2741%; 30-year yield +5.36 bps to 5.5556%, intraday peak 5.5829%.

—— Commodities: WTI Nov crude +0.21% at $92.60/bbl; Brent crude +0.92% at $105.28/bbl. COMEX Gold -3.52% at $4135.4/oz; Silver -4.71% at $61.22/oz.

—— FX: EUR/USD at 1.1370, hovering near two-month lows. GBP/USD flat at 1.3250, still close to three-month lows.

—— Crypto: Bitcoin down more than 1% at $83190; Ethereum -0.12% at $2673.09.

III. Macro Headlines

1. 🕊️ Trump says US will “soon” win war with Iran: Trump stated US officials have spoken with mediators and “this war will end soon”. He denied proposing to lift sanctions and unfreeze funds in return for Iranian nuclear concessions.

Insight: His remarks of an imminent end to war alternate with earlier threats of “total destruction”. The mix of peace signals and war risks means geopolitical trajectory remains highly uncertain, keeping oil prices volatile while markets wait for clearer cues.

2. 📊 10-Year US Treasury yield hits 2007 high at 5.23%: The two-year yield is marching toward the 5% threshold. Rising long-end rates are systematically lifting global financing costs.

Insight: The upward shift across the entire yield curve reflects markets pricing the triple pressure of robust growth, accelerating inflation and fiscal deficits. This has become the dominant headwind for stocks, gold, bitcoin and other assets.

3. 🛢️ Deutsche Bank: Copper could surge over 50% to $22050/ton within six months: Buyers compete for shrinking copper inventories, while AI infrastructure buildout and energy transition keep lifting long-term copper demand.

IV. Global Corporate News

1. 💾 Nvidia approves additional $150bn stock buyback, the largest increase in buyback authorization on record, scheduled to complete by fiscal 2028. This is a direct response to valuation pressure facing the AI hardware leader.

2. 🤖 OpenAI cancels planned October launch of GPT-6.1 Astra over safety concerns. Executives reported safety regressions in the new model. AI safety concerns are shifting from theoretical debates into real-world product release decisions.

V. Key Events To Watch

· 🇦🇺 Australia policy interest rate.

· 🌐 G20 Trade Ministers Meeting: US Trade Representative to attend, watch updates on US-Canada trade frictions and global trade fragmentation.

· 🤖 AI meeting between Trump, tech CEOs and House Speaker: Look for new signals on AI regulatory frameworks and industrial policy.