Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 15-US-Iran deal set for Friday; WTI drops below $80

📌 What Moves Markets Today

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran deal set for Friday → 🛢️ WTI dropped below $80. 🥇 Gold holding near $4,338 as safe-haven demand fades but dip buyers step in.

🔴 Bearish for oil. 🟡 Neutral to slightly bearish for gold short-term.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- 🇰🇷 South Korea imported no crude from Iran in May → Zero flows. Sanctions and uncertainty have cut off a major buyer.

- 🇯🇵 Japan extends lower reserve requirement for private oil stockpiles → Easing pressure on industry. A sign that supply fears are moderating.

- 🇩🇪 Germany: No need to release more strategic crude reserves → Europe's largest economy sees no immediate shortage. A reassuring signal.

- 🇺🇸 US Energy Secretary Wright: No oil export ban to lower prices. Gasoline tax holiday possible this summer. Wants SPR fully refilled. → No supply shocks from policy. SPR refilling is a future bullish factor, but not now.

- 🛢️ "Disha" LNG carrier transits Strait of Hormuz after peace deal announced → First test of the new normal. More ships will follow if the deal holds.

Metals & Mining

- 🏦 JPMorgan reaffirms $4,000/t aluminum price target as shortages persist → Structural bull case. Supply isn't coming back fast.

- 🇮🇳 RBI gold reserves up to $114.58B from $112.6B → Central banks still buying. Long-term support for gold.

- 🇸🇬 Singapore to launch OTC gold clearing system, central bank vault custody by October → A boost for Asian gold trading. Liquidity could improve.

- 🏦 LBMA considering moving morning gold auction earlier to suit Asian traders → A market structure shift. Asia's weight in gold pricing is growing.

Agriculture

- 🇮🇳 India finance minister: Fertilizer price volatility is a challenge → Input costs are hurting farmers. Food inflation risks remain.

- 🇫🇷 Trump threatens 100% tariff on French wine over digital tax → A trade fight brewing. Not a commodity driver yet.

Geopolitics – The Big One

- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran confirm memorandum of understanding, to sign Friday in Switzerland → A deal is happening. Markets are pricing in reopening.

- 🇺🇸 Trump: No transit fees for Strait of Hormuz permanently. Will resume strikes if no final deal. → A hard line. The deal is not done until signed.

- 🇺🇸 CNN: US military ordered to reopen Strait by Friday, but uncertainty remains this week → The market is moving ahead of the actual event. Volatility is high.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 15, 2026 03:27-03:28 AM (GMT-4:00)

Gold – $4,338.37

Resistance: 4,334.97 (R1) / 4,340.84 (R2) / 4,347.28 (R3)

Support: 4,322.66 (S1) / 4,316.22 (S2) / 4,310.35 (S3)

Technical indicators show strong buying momentum. RSI at 70.0 is at the threshold of overbought territory. MACD remains positive. The bullish technical picture contrasts with fading geopolitical risk.

WTI Crude – $79.92

Resistance: 80.92 (R1) / 81.35 (R2) / 81.59 (R3)

Support: 80.25 (S1) / 80.01 (S2) / 79.58 (S3)

The technical picture is firmly bearish. RSI at 27.5 is deeply oversold. MACD is negative. All major moving averages are sloping downward. Price is trading below all key support levels.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Friday signing – will it actually happen?

- 🛢️ Strait traffic – more ships transiting?

- 🇺🇸 US gasoline tax holiday – will Congress act?

- 🏦 LBMA auction timing change – impact on Asian hours