EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Slips below 177.00 near nine-day EMA

• EUR/JPY may find initial support at the 12-month low of 175.07.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 46 suggests neutral-to-soft momentum.
• The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 177.03.

EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 176.90 during Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the currency cross is remaining within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a capped near-term tone as it holds beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of shorter and longer EMAs above price hints at persistent downside risk, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 suggests neutral-to-soft momentum rather than an oversold condition, leaving room for further corrective pressure.

The EUR/JPY cross may fall toward the 12-month low of 175.07, reached on October 30, followed by the lower boundary of its descending channel around 173.60. A break below the channel would open the door for the currency cross to navigate the region around the 15-month low at 169.72.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may rebound and test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 177.03, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 178.20 and the 50-day EMA of 178.37. A successful break above the medium-term price average would cause a bullish reversal, supporting the EUR/JPY cross to explore the area around the all-time high of 187.95, reached on April 17.

Analysts at MUFG highlight that improving domestic demand is becoming an increasingly important pillar of the Japan Government Bond market. Citing Ministry of Finance data, they note that “the data confirming this pick-up in JGB buying by Japanese households comes from the MoF,” which maintains a dedicated section on its website for individual JGBs. Issuance figures there “show a marked pick-up in issuance to individuals with the November total for 3-, 5-, and 10-year totalling JPY 2,026bn, the largest single-month total,” underscoring the scale of the recent shift in household participation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)