Gold Holds Gains Above $4,300 as Markets Pause to Assess US-Iran Peace Deal Details

XAU/USD has posted a 6.5% recovery across the prior three trading sessions, yet momentum has faded sharply once prices crossed the $4,300 threshold. Initial risk-off optimism spurred by the tentative US-Iran détente has given way to broad market caution, with investors waiting for full text of the accord and a packed slate of major central bank policy decisions this week.

US President Donald Trump confirmed the bilateral deal has been signed, with full terms slated for release ahead of Friday. Key unanswered points continue to cap bullish momentum: the timeline for restoring full shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, provisions governing Iran’s nuclear programme, and lingering risks of renewed geopolitical friction. These unknowns prevent markets from fully pricing out energy-driven inflation risks built up over the past three months.

Beyond Middle East developments, global investors are poised to parse monetary policy verdicts from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Traders are weighing whether de-escalation in the Gulf will ease pressure on policymakers to pursue restrictive rate settings in the near term.

Technical Outlook: Broader Bearish Trend Remains Intact

source:tradingview

Spot gold trades near $4,315, stuck in a corrective rebound beneath a cluster of layered resistance levels. Daily momentum indicators show mild improvement but have not yet crossed into bullish territory. The RSI reads 43, while MACD stays submerged in negative territory, signalling underlying downside bias persists despite the recent bounce.

Key Resistance Zones

▪️ Immediate cap ➝ $4,380 (former support from late-May lows, now flipped resistance)

▪️ Primary hurdle ➝ $4,400 ▪️ Descending trendline resistance (January peak pivot) ➝ $4,430 ▪️ 200-day SMA critical barrier ➝ $4,465

▪️ Secondary bull target on decisive breakout ➝ late-May highs near $4,590

Key Support Zones

▪️ Near-term floor ➝ Monday’s intraday low at $4,260

▪️ Critical downside pivot ➝ last week’s trough at $4,023

▪️ Extended bear target on breakdown below $4,023 ➝ October 2025 support at $3,888