Morning Brief: Iran Warns Gulf Energy Facilities At Risk; Brent Crude Settles At $97‑per‑barrel

【Key Snapshot】

· ⚠️ Iran has threatened retaliation against further US military strikes, putting Gulf energy infrastructure at risk. Brent crude closed 0.75% higher at $97 per barrel.

· 💴 USD/JPY dropped 1.21% to 154.35, hitting its lowest level since February as the yen extended its recent rally.

【I. Market Outlook】

Core Events:

‑ Iran warns of risks to Gulf energy facilities: Iran has pledged retaliation should US forces launch new attacks, exposing regional energy installations to direct threats. Markets keep pricing in heightened odds of further US‑Iran escalation. → Brent crude +0.75% at $97/bbl; no WTI settlement due to US Labor Day market closure.

Exclusive View:

Oil prices are steadily approaching the $100 psychological threshold. Iran’s threat targeting Gulf energy assets acts as a direct catalyst for higher geopolitical risk premium. The yen has maintained strength since last Friday, with USD/JPY falling to a February low of 154.35. Short yen positions are being systematically unwound following US non‑farm payrolls, while growing market bets for a September BOJ rate hike leave further near‑term upside open for the Japanese currency.

【II. Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: US markets closed Monday for Labor Day holiday.

‑ European Equities: Pan‑European STOXX 600 closed at 649.9. Germany DAX ‑0.2%, France CAC 40 +0.3%, UK FTSE 100 ‑0.08%.

‑ Fixed Income: Germany 10‑year bund yield rose 4 bps to 3.375%.

‑ Commodities: November‑contract Brent crude +0.75% at $97/bbl. LME Copper +0.65% to $14510/tonne.

‑ FX: US Dollar Index came under pressure. EUR/USD +0.07% at 1.1621; USD/JPY ‑1.21% to 154.35, touching an intraday low of 154.05 (February trough); GBP/USD +0.13% at 1.3538.

【III. Macro News】

1. ⚠️ Iran warns retaliation will follow fresh US strikes, Gulf energy facilities face risks. Tehran issued the latest warning, saying new US military attacks will trigger reprisals targeting regional energy infrastructure.

Insight: Spill‑over risks from the US‑Iran conflict are spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz toward broader Gulf energy assets. Oil’s march toward $100 signals markets are pricing in severe geopolitical scenarios.

2. 📈 Euro Area Q2 final GDP revised up to +0.6% QoQ and +1.2% YoY, above prior reading of 1.0% YoY. The euro‑zone recovery outperformed expectations, though surging oil prices may weigh on second‑half outlook.

3. 📊 South Korea Q2 GDP printed +0.6% QoQ, +3.7% YoY, matching preliminary estimates.

【IV. Corporate News】

1. 💾 Anthropic secured $517 billion worth of computing resources within 11 months, yet still trails OpenAI. The AI compute arms race intensifies as Anthropic chases top‑tier rivals ahead of its record‑size IPO.

【V. Key Events To Watch】

· 🇰🇷 South Korea releases final Q2 GDP data.

· 🇯🇵 Japan publishes July current‑account balance and final Q2 GDP.

· 🇨🇦 Canadian retaliatory tariffs on US goods take effect. Duties of 15%, 25% or 50% apply to roughly 700 American product lines, escalating Canada‑US trade frictions.

· 📊 US NFIB Small‑Business Optimism Index for August.

· 🇩🇪 Germany releases July import‑export figures.