📰 Morning Brief: Lula stages surprise comeback in Brazil election, stock market posts worst single-day drop in nearly three decades

Key Snapshots

📈 All three major US indexes finished higher. S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7676.77, Nasdaq gained 0.83% to 26169.38, Dow Jones added 0.28% to 52361.58.

💾 Anthropic officially filed for an IPO, targeting Nasdaq listing under ticker ANT. Meta rolled out a financing plan of up to $95 billion.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

US equities edged up amid a quiet macro calendar. S&P 500 closed +0.70% at 7676.77, Nasdaq +0.83% at 26169.38, Dow +0.28% at 52361.58. The 10-year US Treasury yield finished flat at 4.9946%, while the 2-year yield climbed 3.63 bps to 4.7180%.

Exclusive Viewpoint

US stocks ticked higher without major macro catalysts, reaffirming the correlation between risk sentiment and crypto assets. Anthropic’s IPO filing, with explicit warnings that profitability may never be achieved, marks one of the most candid risk disclosures from a top-tier AI firm as it moves toward public markets.

II. Overnight Market Action

US Equities: S&P 500 +0.70% at 7676.77; Nasdaq +0.83% at 26169.38; Dow +0.28% at 52361.58.

European Equities: STOXX Europe 600 +0.77% at 640.66.

Rates: 10-year US Treasury yield flat at 4.9946%; 2-year +3.63 bps to 4.7180%; 30-year -1.93 bps to 5.3039%.

Commodities: Spot gold +0.53% to $4017.14/oz, rebounding after dipping below $3980 intraday. Spot silver +0.17% to $53.98/oz.

FX: USD/JPY +0.37% to 157.45.

Crypto: Bitcoin broke below $80,000 to $79918. Ethereum fell 1.3% to $2308.

III. Macro Headlines

1. 🇧🇷 Lula secures an unexpected comeback to win a fourth presidential term, triggering violent market reaction. Brazil’s stock index logged its steepest daily decline in nearly 30 years, the real saw its worst drop in two decades, and a $6 billion equity fundraising was put on hold. Market bets on a pro-business candidate victory failed to materialize.

Insight: A sharp repricing of Latin American political risk. A continued left-wing administration raises odds of looser fiscal policy and state intervention, forcing global investors to reassess allocations to Brazilian assets.

2. ⚠️ Ukraine extends martial law for another 90 days through late January next year. Russia stated the resumption of tripartite talks will not constrain military operations, cementing the long-duration trajectory of the conflict.

IV. Corporate News

1. 🤖 Anthropic has formally submitted its IPO application for Nasdaq listing under ANT. It posted $16.3 billion revenue and a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half. The firm warned it may never turn profitable and flagged long-term existential risks for humanity. The filing stands out for its frank risk disclosure among leading AI companies going public.

2. 💰 Meta launched a proposed $35 billion common and preferred share offering, alongside a secondary at-the-market programme capped at $60 billion. Total financing capacity reaches $95 billion, showing AI capex funding is shifting from debt toward equity issuance.

3. 🤖 OpenAI unveiled GPT-6.1 Terra. It delivers three times the token throughput of Claude Opus 5.5 at just one quarter of the cost. AI model competition is shifting from raw performance toward cost efficiency.

4. 📉 Two leveraged SK Hynix ETFs set to delist in the US roughly three months after listing. Extreme volatility in memory chip shares is exposing the inherent dangers of leveraged exchange-traded products.

V. Key Events To Watch

🇮🇱 Israel holds legislative elections to fill all 120 seats in the 26th Knesset. Whether Netanyahu retains power is the central wildcard; the outcome will shape Middle East security dynamics and oil price expectations.