📰 Morning Brief: Trump faces midterm test, Democrats seen retaking House; JOLTS tops estimates

Core Snapshot

· 🗳️ Voting is underway for the US midterm elections. Polls broadly favour Democrats seizing control of the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Final results may take days or even weeks to confirm.

· 🛢️ Senior Iranian officials say a US-Iran deal remains far off. Mediator Qatar is ramping up shuttle diplomacy to prevent a flare-up after the election.

I. Market Outlook

Key Events

- Midterm voting opens, Democrats favoured to recapture the House: US voters head to the polls Tuesday for the midterms, a major referendum on Trump’s second term. Pollsters and nonpartisan analysts assign better odds to Democrats flipping the House from Republican control, though Senate control hangs in the balance. → **S&P 500 +0.36% at 7568.92; Nasdaq +0.83% at 25372.01; Dow -0.38% at 51786.72.**

Exclusive View

The midterms are the week’s biggest political catalyst. A Democratic House majority would sharply constrain Trump’s fiscal agenda and Iran policy, one factor capping oil prices in the near term, as Qatar races to de-escalate tensions post-election. AMD’s data-centre revenue nearly doubled with a record Q4 guide, signalling accelerating AI compute demand.

II. Overnight Markets

US Equities: S&P 500 +0.36% at 7568.92; Nasdaq +0.83% at 25372.01; Dow -0.38% at 51786.72.

European Equities: STOXX Europe 600 -0.58% at 645.66. DAX -0.45%, CAC 40 -0.34%, FTSE 100 -1.14%.

Fixed Income: 10-year Treasury yield +5.4 bps to 4.948%; 30-year +5.2 bps to 5.321%.

Commodities: WTI Dec -0.38% at $96.09/bbl; Brent -1.12% at $103.60/bbl. COMEX Gold -0.74% at $3927.24/oz; Silver -2.20% at $49.59/oz.

FX: DXY +0.07% to 101.83; EUR +0.07% at 1.1193; GBP +0.04% at 1.3411; USD/JPY +0.46% at 158.66.

Crypto: Bitcoin +1.50% near $77,800, tracking a bounce in tech shares.

III. Macro Headlines

1. 🗳️ Midterm voting underway, Democrats favoured to win the House. Senate control is still uncertain and results could drag out for weeks.

Insight: A Democratic House would narrow Trump’s room for fiscal and Iran policy moves. Election uncertainty will sway risk appetite over coming sessions.

2. 🕊️ Senior Iranian officials: US and Iran remain far from an accord. Qatar is mediating urgently to avoid renewed conflict once votes are counted.

Insight: Oil’s sharp drop in the prior session priced in diplomatic hopes too quickly. Iran’s latest remarks show a deal is not imminent, and Qatar’s mediation window is tied closely to election outcomes.

3. 📊 US September JOLTS job openings rose to 7.523 mln, beating forecasts. Layoffs and discharges hit the lowest since March 2025; the labour market stays tight.

4. ⚠️ Russia launches large-scale air strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, clouding prospects for Abu Dhabi talks.

5. 💰 World Gold Council: Central banks bought a net 321 tonnes of gold in Q3, up 42% YoY. Physical gold ETF holdings hit an all-time high of 4,256 tonnes, sustaining structural official-sector demand.

IV. Corporate News

1. ⚠️ Binance says attackers breached internal systems via fake job interviews and wallet controls, siphoning $6.3 bln in crypto. It ranks among the largest financial heists on record and exposes critical internal control gaps at crypto exchanges.

2. 💾 AMD Q3 revenue beat estimates with 45% YoY growth. Data-centre revenue nearly doubled, and Q4 guidance set a new high. Management flagged accelerating data-centre demand, targeting doubled server revenue by 2027 and higher data-centre sales than previously projected. AI compute demand keeps accelerating.

V. Key Releases Today

· 📊 US October ADP private payrolls, September trade balance, October Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: key pre-NFP gauges; services momentum will shape rate-hike pricing.

· 🗳️ US midterm results trickle in; the Senate race may remain unresolved for days or weeks.