Morning Brief: Warsh delivers strongest‑yet September‑hike signal; US equities slide. Trump secures majority control over Venezuela’s 65‑billion‑barrel oil reserves

【Key Snapshot】

· 🏛️ Warsh struck his most hawkish tone to date at Jackson Hole, stating the Fed “has more work to do” should underlying inflation fail to return to the 2% target. Markets sharply raised odds for a September rate hike, driving the US Dollar Index to its steepest single‑day gain since June.

· 🛢️ Trump announced the US has secured majority control over Venezuela’s 65‑billion‑barrel proven oil reserves, laying plans for US firms to revitalize the nation’s energy sector.

· 📉 Heightened rate‑hike expectations weighed on risk assets. S&P 500 fell 0.25% and Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.52%. Gold tumbled 2.87% below $4,500; Bitcoin slipped under $78,000.

【Market Outlook】

Core Events

‑ Warsh sends strongest‑ever September‑hike signal: Speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium, Warsh noted financial conditions are not meaningfully restrictive for the economy. His remarks represented the clearest hawkish hint ahead of the September FOMC. → 2‑Yr Treasury yield jumped 12 bps to 4.352%, the largest one‑day advance since March; 10‑Yr rose 5.6 bps to 4.728%. US Dollar Index +0.59% to 99.68, biggest daily rise since June 17.

Exclusive View

Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech sets a high bar for inaction in September. With financial conditions failing to cool the economy materially, markets have priced September hike probability higher from ~30% to nearly 60%.

【Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: S&P 500 ‑0.25% at 7711.76 (+0.49% weekly); Nasdaq ‑0.52% at 26402.42 (+0.85% weekly); Dow Jones ‑0.02% at 53559.99 (+0.53% weekly).

‑ European Equities: STOXX Europe 600 +0.5% to 655.16, posting a weekly gain following two consecutive losing weeks.

‑ Fixed Income: 2‑Yr US Treasury yield +11.97 bps to 4.352%; 10‑Yr +5.6 bps to 4.728%.

‑ Commodities: WTI Oct ‑0.16% at $83.40/bbl (‑4.20% weekly); Brent ‑0.43% at $89.31/bbl (‑5.38% weekly). COMEX Gold ‑2.87% at $4478.1/oz (‑3.25% weekly); Silver ‑3.51% at $66.995/oz (‑3.65% weekly).

‑ FX: US Dollar Index +0.59% to 99.68.

‑ Crypto: Bitcoin below $78000; Ethereum ‑0.07% at $2440.

【Macro Highlights】

1. 🏛️ Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole address: Fed keeps further rate hikes on the table until inflation is firmly on track toward 2%. Markets price September hike odds near 60%.

Insight: Jackson Hole has become the platform for Fed hawkish signaling, making a September hike a realistic policy option.

2. 🛢️ Trump secures majority control of Venezuela’s 65‑bbl oil reserves. US companies will lead domestic energy revitalization, marking a major shift in Washington‑Caracas policy.

Insight: Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Near‑term output gains will take years, yet the prospect alone weighs on crude prices and threatens OPEC+ supply dynamics over the long run.

3. 📊 US payroll revisions show 79,000 fewer jobs created over the 12‑month period ending March. Still, Fed policymakers prioritize inflation over labour‑market cooling.

4. 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada expected to hold rates unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, with steady policy seen for at least one year.

【Corporate News】

1. 💾 Anthropic ramps up in‑house AI chip development. It explored a $7‑billion acquisition of MatX and is in talks with multiple semiconductor startups while preparing for a landmark IPO.

2. ⚡ Musk confirmed SpaceX will manufacture gas‑turbine components internally to resolve power‑generation bottlenecks amid AI‑driven compute demand growth.

【Today’s Key Watchlist】

· 🏛️ G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Aug 31‑Sep 1, US). Watch for coordinated statements on Iranian sanctions from US Treasury Secretary Bessent.