Oil Falls, Stocks Rally as US-Iran-Oman Near Interim Hormuz Deal — But Key Approval Still Pending

VG Markets · 2026-08-05T06:55:17Z
Oil Falls, Stocks Rally as US-Iran-Oman Near Interim Hormuz Deal — But Key Approval Still Pending

Oil prices fell and Asian equities extended Wall Street's record-high momentum Wednesday after President Trump said "very good discussions" with Iran occurred during all-day talks Tuesday, fueling hopes the five-month conflict could soon de-escalate. Trump said Hormuz "is going to be open very soon," while warning of renewed strikes "if they back out again."

Deal specifics now emerging: Axios reports the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement targeted for Wednesday announcement, per two regional sources and a US official. Terms reportedly include:

  1. 60 days of temporary shipping lanes
  2. Mine clearance from the strait's middle channel within 30 days
  3. Ships entering via an Iran-controlled route, exiting via an Oman-controlled route, with service fees for security and environmental upkeep

The catch: Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has reportedly agreed in principle, but the deal still needs sign-off from Iran's Supreme Leader and Supreme National Security Council. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday the White House is "hoping" for an agreement — not confirming one. Rapidan Energy's geopolitical desk publicly pushed back on imminence when asked directly. Iranian state media separately said any Oman deal would be delayed "as long as the United States continues to threaten Iran."

Context for traders: CENTCOM says it has facilitated over 1,000 ship transits through Hormuz's still-open southern lane in the past three months, while also redirecting 45 vessels and boarding two to enforce its blockade on Iran-linked shipping — a reminder that "closed" and "open" aren't binary in this conflict. Separately, Yemen's Houthis have blockaded Saudi shipping in the Red Sea; an Indian-flagged vessel sank there this week (all 14 crew rescued). The UN's IMO has recorded at least 17 seafarer deaths across 64 Hormuz-area incidents since the war began February 28; Iran reports over 3,400 total deaths, the US 18 military personnel.

Bottom line: Treat Wednesday's headline risk as elevated but unresolved — the deal has cleared several negotiating hurdles but not yet the final political approval in Tehran.