📰 US 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% Intraday; Calls to Slow AI Development Hammer AI Stocks

1 Key Snapshot

· 📉 The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly topped 5% during trading hours. Wall Street firms revised year-end forecasts upward, with Goldman Sachs lifting its projection from 4.40% to 4.75%.

· ⚠️ Industry leaders’ appeal to slow AI development weighed heavily on AI-related equities. Major US indexes retreated, Nasdaq fell 0.56% and S&P 500 dropped 0.48%.

2 Market Outlook

Key Events

- AI leaders urge slower AI development, pressuring AI stocks and weighing on Nasdaq. → Nasdaq -0.56% at 26186.41; S&P 500 -0.48% at 7619.98.

- Middle East supply disruption risks lift crude prices. Iran stated an oil tanker hit a mine and exploded while attempting to cross the strait, adding the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control and blocked. Trump said he is open to talks with Iran but demanded “escort compensation”. Iranian officials said dialogue with the US will not start until Tehran’s conditions are met. → WTI +1.34% at $101.39/bbl; Brent +1.02% at $105.68/bbl.

Exclusive View

The “escort compensation” demand creates a new negotiating hurdle. Actual passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain the core driver of crude oil prices.

3 Overnight Market Action

US Equities

S&P 500 -0.48% at 7619.98; Dow Jones -0.29% at 52421.20; Nasdaq -0.56% at 26186.41.

European Equities

Europe STOXX 600 -0.49% at 635.99.

Fixed Income

10-year US Treasury yield around 4.99%, up roughly 2 bps intraday; 2-year yield at 4.66%, up 3 bps intraday.

Commodities

WTI Oct crude +1.34% at $101.39/bbl; Brent +1.02% at $105.68/bbl. COMEX Gold -1.29% at $4310/oz; Silver -1.61% at $63.513/oz.

FX

Dollar Index +0.27% at 99.388.

Crypto

Bitcoin rose nearly 3% to $78955; Ethereum gained over 3% to $2558.

4 Macro News

1. 🛢️ Iran reports oil tanker mine blast, Strait of Hormuz stays blocked. Iran said a tanker struck a mine while trying to transit the strait and stressed it retains control. Trump voiced readiness for talks but requested escort compensation; Iranian officials rule out dialogue before their demands are satisfied.

Insight: The “escort compensation” clause adds new barriers to negotiations. Traffic accessibility in the Strait of Hormuz is the most critical factor for crude pricing.

2. 🕊️ Trump claims Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacking energy targets, while Zelensky says no formal deal has been reached. Zelensky is open to discussing an energy truce but confirmed no finalized agreement.

3. 🏛️ 10-year US Treasury yield topped 5% intraday, Wall Street hikes year-end forecasts. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast from 4.40% to 4.75%, TD Securities lifted from 4.25% to 4.75%. Expectations for persistently high long-term rates keep strengthening.

5 Global Corporate News

1. 📱 Apple unveils Siri AI. iOS 27 supports iPhone 11 and newer models plus second-generation iPhone SE and above. Full Siri AI capabilities roll out first to devices compatible with Apple Intelligence.

6 Today’s Focus

· 🇬🇧 UK releases August unemployment rate and 3-month ILO employment data for July.

· 📊 US September NY Fed Manufacturing Index release.