Brent Breaks Above $100. Is the Oil Rally Entering a New Phase?

Brent crude climbed above the $100 per barrel mark on Thursday, reaching its highest level in weeks as escalating tensions in the Middle East intensified concerns over global energy supplies.

The latest advance has been driven by fears that both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea—two of the world's most important oil shipping routes—could face prolonged disruptions following Iran-linked threats. As geopolitical risks continue to escalate, traders have continued to build a larger risk premium into oil prices.

The oil rally is now spilling over into interest-rate expectations.

With Brent trading back above $100, investors have begun reassessing the inflation outlook, fearing that higher energy prices could reverse recent progress on disinflation. Market pricing now implies a 38% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, a sharp rebound from the post-CPI lows.

If oil prices remain elevated, renewed energy-driven inflation could keep US Treasury yields and the US Dollar supported while adding fresh volatility across global financial markets.

Technical Outlook: Can Brent Hold Above Triple Digits?

From a technical perspective, Brent has decisively reclaimed the psychologically important $100 level, confirming that bullish momentum remains firmly in place.

Holding above $100 would strengthen the breakout and shift attention toward the next resistance around $105. A sustained move above that area could pave the way for another leg higher if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate.

On the downside, $100 now becomes the first key support level, with the previous breakout zone near $95 acting as a stronger medium-term floor. As long as prices remain above these levels, the broader uptrend is likely to stay intact despite elevated headline-driven volatility.