Daily Commodities Highlights Jun 02

🎯 Top Story

What happened: Three sources said OPEC+ is expected to decide at its Sunday meeting to raise July crude output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day.

Why it matters: A symbolic increase that will do little to ease tight supply. The market has already priced in this move.

Market impact: 🟡 Neutral. Too small to move the needle.

🇮🇳 Coal India production down nearly 12% in May → Supply disruption in the world's largest coal miner. Tightening global coal supply.
🇿🇦 South Africa: June gasoline prices to rise 143 cents per liter → Another hit to consumers. Inflationary pressure building.
🇷🇺 Russia's Volgograd refinery offline since May 29 drone attack → More refining capacity knocked out. Product exports to tighten.
🇷🇺 Rosneft Q1 oil and gas condensate output at 3.74 million barrels per day, down 0.4% from previous quarter → Slight decline. Still stable overall.
🇮🇩 Indonesia Jan-April exports: 7.72 million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oil, 114.54 million tons of coal → Massive volumes. Indonesia remains a key global supplier.
🇺🇸 US proposes 25% tariff on all Brazilian imports, with exceptions for beef, coffee, fruits, nuts, spices, oil and metal ores → Trade tensions rising. Not a broad commodity shock given exceptions.

🇦🇺 Australia wheat output expected down 26% due to weather and war costs → Supply tightening. Global wheat prices may find support.
🇮🇩 Indonesia Jan-July rice output expected at 21.95 million tons → Steady production. No major supply shock.
🇺🇸 US adjusts aluminum, steel, copper tariffs: "US content" threshold lowered to 85%; agricultural equipment included in 15% low tariff rate → Slight easing. Marginal positive for some importers.
🇷🇺 Natural resources ministry: 2026 gold output seen at 480-500 tons, silver at 2,800-3,000 tons → Russia remains a major precious metals producer.
🇮🇳 India cuts summer crop urea forecast to 19 million tons from 19.4 million; DAP forecast to 6.6 million tons from 6.8 million → Lower fertilizer demand. Slightly bearish for fertilizer prices.
🇷🇺 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum June 3-6 → Watch for policy announcements.

Resistance: $4,574.35 (R1) / $4,581.89 (R2) / $4,595.58 (R3) → Break above R1 targets R2

Support: $4,553.12 (S1) / $4,539.43 (S2) / $4,531.89 (S3) → Hold above S1 keeps bull case

Call: Strong Buy – MAs: 12 Buy / 0 Sell. Indicators: 9 Buy / 0 Sell. RSI at 63.2. STOCHRSI at 88.7 is overbought.

Resistance: $91.84 (R1) / $92.10 (R2) / $92.51 (R3) → Need to clear R1 for upside

Support: $91.17 (S1) / $90.76 (S2) / $90.50 (S3) → Break below S1 signals further weakness

Call: Strong Sell – MAs: 3 Buy / 9 Sell. Indicators: 1 Buy / 7 Sell. RSI at 46.0 neutral. STOCHRSI is oversold at 0.