Daily Commodities Highlights — May 26

VG Markets · 2026-05-26T07:58:22Z
Daily Commodities Highlights — May 26

🎯 Top Story

🇺🇸 US carries out defensive strike in southern Iran


What happened: US forces conducted a defensive strike in southern Iran. US officials said the strike was defensive and does not mean the end of the ceasefire.


Why it matters: This is a major escalation. Just as diplomatic progress on the Strait seemed near, military action has raised tensions again.


Market impact: 🟢 Bullish for crude. Geopolitical risk is back on the table.


🔥 Quick Takes


⛽ Energy

  • 🇦🇺 Australia's Ichthys LNG workers cancel strike plans → A relief for buyers as LNG supply from Australia remains stable.
  • 🇮🇳 Reliance Industries cuts Russian crude imports by 38 percent month-on-month in April → India is pulling back on Russian oil and seeking alternative supplies.
  • 🇰🇿 CPC April oil exports up 5 percent month-on-month → Kazakh oil is still flowing, a positive sign for European buyers.
  • 🇷🇺 Russia's Syzran refinery stops processing after drone strike on May 21 → Another hit to Russian refining capacity. Product exports may tighten.
  • 🇷🇺 Kremlin: Gas price to Armenia is very attractive, but preferential pricing will be lost if Armenia abandons integration → Moscow using energy as leverage. A warning to allies.
  • 🇮🇳 India gas-fired power generation hits six-year low for April-May period → Weak demand or fuel switching — neither is a good sign for gas.


🥇 Metals & Mining

  • 🇦🇴 Angola illegal gold mine landslide kills 28 → A tragic accident. Production impact is unclear.
  • 🏦 BofA maintains 12-month gold target at $6,000 per ounce → Gold is short-term pressured, but the medium-term bullish case remains intact.
  • 🇨🇱 Magnitude 6.9 earthquake in northern Chile; Codelco says some mine operations suspended → Copper supply is at risk, which could lift prices.
  • 🇬🇳 Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, plans reform measures next month to control exports and boost prices → A major supply move. Aluminum prices may head higher.


🌍 Other

  • 🇷🇺 Russian wheat export prices rise again due to stronger rouble and farmer reluctance to sell → Global wheat prices may follow as supply tightens.
  • 🇷🇺 Russia's April seaborne grain exports up 100.1 percent year-on-year to 4.9 million tons → A huge jump. Russia is flooding the market despite higher prices.
  • 🇮🇷 Reports: Iran to open the Strait within 30 days of a deal; ceasefire to be extended 60 days → A potential timeline. Diplomatic progress may still be possible.
  • 🇺🇸 US forces carry out defensive strike in southern Iran → See Top Story.
  • 🇺🇸 US Secretary of State: The Strait must open regardless. Final deal wording may take a few more days. → Diplomatic work continues, but military action has added a new layer of complication.


📊 Key Data Snapshot



💡 Final Takeaway


🇺🇸 The US strike in southern Iran adds a new layer of risk just as diplomacy was making progress.

🇷🇺 Russian refining keeps taking hits. 🇮🇳 India is cutting back on Russian crude.

🇨🇱 Chile's copper output may be affected by the earthquake.

🇬🇳 Guinea is planning bauxite export controls.

🇷🇺 Russian grain exports doubled. The market is caught between geopolitical escalation and diplomatic hopes.


🔮 Looking Ahead


  • 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Will the US-Iran deal still be signed this week?
  • 🇷🇺 More drone strikes on Russian refineries?
  • 🇨🇱 Chile copper mine restart timeline after earthquake
  • 🇬🇳 Guinea bauxite export reform details
  • 🇮🇳 India's Russian crude imports — further decline?