Gold Surges 4.2% to $4,308 — Is $4,400 Next?

Gold has made a powerful comeback. Spot gold jumped 4.2% overnight to close around $4,308, with prices briefly hitting $4,328.20 — the biggest single-day gain in five months.

This wasn't just another bounce. Gold broke out of a six-week descending triangle and climbed back above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, giving the technical picture a much more bullish look.

Several catalysts came together at once.

Fresh comments from President Trump on talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz helped revive geopolitical risk premiums. At the same time, stronger-than-expected central-bank gold buying reinforced expectations that official-sector demand remains a major support for bullion.

South Korea's decision to resume gold purchases after a 13-year pause has added another layer to the story. Central-bank demand is increasingly becoming a structural support for gold, rather than a short-term trade.

Rate expectations are also moving in gold's favour. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September rising to 45%, the highest level in more than a month.

That combination is giving gold bulls plenty to work with.

With the technical breakout now confirmed, $4,400 is becoming the next major level to watch. A sustained move above $4,300 would keep momentum firmly on the buyers' side, while a pullback below the breakout zone could signal that traders are taking some profits after the sharp rally.