📰 Morning Brief: Market odds for an October rate hike tumble from 70% to 15% in a month, Nasdaq climbs 1.18%

Key Snapshot

· 🏛️ Fed’s Wall Street Journal correspondent reports market pricing for an October hike fell from 70% to 15% within one month.

· 📈 Nasdaq rose 1.18% to 26477.81, S&P 500 gained 0.60% to 7722.60, Dow Jones edged up 0.03%.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events:

- Odds of an October rate hike slumped from 70% to 15% in a month: Timiraos noted that Wash cut back on public remarks after taking office in May, while other policymakers filled the gap. Between the prior meeting and the blackout period, 16 officials delivered no fewer than 59 public speeches, driving the sharp repricing.

Exclusive Viewpoint:

The steep pullback in October hike odds directly reflects markets reacting to the Fed’s communication strategy. Wash’s restrained remarks paired with frequent comments from other officials muddled policy signals and triggered volatile expectations. This creates fresh uncertainty: if the Fed holds steady in October, rate-hike pressure will shift to December.

II. Overnight Market Action

US Equities: Dow Jones +0.03% at 52377.57; S&P 500 +0.60% at 7722.60; Nasdaq +1.18% at 26477.81.

European Equities: STOXX Europe 600 +0.47% at 643.68.

Rates: 2-year US Treasury yield +2.4 bps to 4.735%; 10-year yield +0.2 bps to 4.988%.

Commodities: WTI Dec contract -1.83% at $99.90/bbl; Brent -1.67% at $113.88/bbl. COMEX Gold +0.91% at $4058.80/oz; Silver +0.34% at $54.29/oz. Spot Gold +1.09% to $4060.55, back above $4000.

FX: EUR/USD -0.45% at 1.1122; USD/JPY +0.28% at 157.94; GBP/USD -0.27% at 1.3303.

Crypto: Bitcoin +1.05% at $80753.50, back above the $80,000 threshold.

III. Macro Headlines

1. 🏛️ Market probability for an October rate hike drops from 70% to 15% in a month: Timiraos writes that Wash has reduced public appearances, but 16 policymakers gave at least 59 speeches, triggering big swings in rate expectations.

Insight: Frequent official remarks alongside a quiet chair blurred policy signals. A pause in October would push tightening risk into December, opening a new source of market volatility.

2. 📊 US September durable goods orders rose 1.8% month-on-month, the largest gain in five months: Resilient economic data underpins risk appetite.

3. 🇰🇷 South Korea retail leverage frenzy returns, margin loans outstanding hit 30.15 trillion won: After restrictions on leveraged ETFs, retail capital shifted into margin trading, drawing regulatory warnings.

IV. Corporate News

1. 🤖 Google unveils its most advanced world model Genie 4: Simulation length doubles to two minutes, with synchronized audio-video generation for the first time. Gaming stocks face renewed AI disruption.

2. 💾 Samsung and SK Hynix plan to supply 8-layer HBM4 in Q2 2027: The HBM roadmap becomes clearer, reinforcing memory chips as a strategic AI asset.

V. Key Events To Watch

· 📊 Alphabet and Microsoft release earnings after US market close: Focus on AI capex and cloud growth guidance; ServiceNow, KLA and Ford also report results.

· 🛢️ US EIA crude oil and SPR inventory data: Inventory figures will test supply-demand fundamentals amid elevated oil prices.

· 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada rate decision and monetary policy report: Watch its assessment of energy shocks and inflation.