Trump Claims "All-Day" Iran Talks, Warns of Strikes if Hormuz Stays Closed — But Track Record Urges Caution

President Trump said Tuesday the US held an "all-day negotiation" with Iran, telling Fox News "we are having very good discussions," and predicted the Strait of Hormuz would reopen "very soon." He warned Iran would be "hit really hard" if it backed out again. Tehran denied that direct talks are underway.

What's actually on the table: Iran says it's negotiating with Oman, not the US directly, over a temporary shipping corridor — not a full reopening. An Iranian negotiator told state broadcaster IRIB the goal is a 1-3 month arrangement "where Iran is dominant," with Tehran controlling security, demining, and maritime services. Treasury Secretary Bessent separately said a deal could land "today or tomorrow."

Why skepticism is warranted: Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew notes this cycle — US ultimatum, claimed breakthrough, then stall — has repeated at least five times since April. Iran has consistently rejected a full return to pre-war shipping terms.

Background: The war began February 28 when the US and Israel struck Iran; Tehran responded by closing Hormuz and striking Israel and Gulf states hosting US bases. Combined strikes have killed thousands and displaced millions. Rights experts have said Trump's threats against Iranian civilian infrastructure — including an April threat to "destroy their civilization" — could violate Geneva Conventions protections if carried out, and US legal experts said in April such attacks could constitute war crimes. Iran has warned it would retaliate against regional energy and economic facilities if struck.

For traders: Given the repeated pattern of unconfirmed "breakthrough" claims moving oil sharply before stalling, treat rhetoric-driven price swings as high-risk, low-conviction moves until verified by ship-tracking data or an official signed agreement.