📰 Trump Rules Out Iran Strike Before Midterms; Negotiations "Productive", Nasdaq Slumps 1.25% as AI Sector Crumbles

Key Snapshot

· 🕊️ Trump stated the US will not launch an attack on Iran ahead of November midterm elections, noting bilateral talks are productive. He projected oil prices will fall after the vote.

· 🛢️ Iran vows to block more shipping lanes within the Strait of Hormuz, raising tanker attack risks. Brent crude jumped 4.07% to $104.28 per barrel.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

- Trump: No Iran Attack Before Midterms, Negotiations Productive: Trump said the US will avoid military action against Iran before November congressional midterms. The two sides hold productive talks to end hostilities, and he expects oil prices to decline post-election, though no detailed peace roadmap has been released. → WTI rose 3.64% to $91.49/bbl; Brent crude climbed 4.07% to $104.28/bbl.

Exclusive View

Trump tied military action to the midterm election timeline, setting a clear time boundary for the geopolitical conflict and delivering short-term certainty for markets. Still, Iran pledged to shut more Hormuz shipping routes the same day, meaning negotiation and conflict escalation run in parallel.

II. Overnight Market Performance

—— US Equities: Dow +0.10% at 51231.64; S&P 500 -0.47% at 7765.36; Nasdaq -1.25% at 27193.34.

—— European Equities: Pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.8% to near four-month low. Germany DAX -1.18%, France CAC40 -0.5% hitting over six-month trough, UK FTSE 100 -0.16%.

—— Fixed Income: 10-year US Treasury yield dropped 5 bps to 5.227%; 30-year yield down 5.9 bps to 5.602%.

—— Commodities: WTI Nov crude +3.64% at $91.49/bbl; Brent crude +4.07% at $104.28/bbl. COMEX Gold +0.44% at $4131.8/oz; Silver -1.39% at $59.064/oz.

—— FX: US Dollar Index -0.08% at 102.17; Euro +0.13% to 1.1209 USD.

—— Crypto: Bitcoin briefly dipped below $81,000 to $80311.94; Ethereum fell 3.5% to $2479.

III. Macro News

1. 🕊️ Trump: No Iran Strike Before Midterms, Negotiations "Productive": Trump set a clear timeline for geopolitical risks and forecast oil price declines after the election, without releasing detailed plans to end the war.

Insight: Linking military operations to the election schedule brings short-run market certainty. Iran’s parallel threat to block Hormuz lanes shows diplomacy and escalation proceed simultaneously.

2. 🛢️ Iran Vows To Block More Shipping Lanes in Strait of Hormuz: Risk of tanker attacks climbs, Brent crude surged 4.07% above $104.

3. 📊 WTO Raises Global Merchandise Trade Forecast for This Year and Next, AI Demand Offsets Iran War Shocks: Global goods trade volume projected to rise 3.9% in 2026, backed mainly by AI-related demand.

IV. Global Corporate News

1. 🤖 OpenAI Annualized Revenue Hits $50 Billion, $200B Below Prior Estimates: The AI commercialisation narrative faces direct scrutiny. Nasdaq’s 1.25% drop reflects market re-evaluation on revenue delivery speed of AI application layer.

2. 💾 Nvidia Plans $1B Investment Over 5 Years for US Superintelligence Research: Funding targets quantum computing, healthcare and energy security.

3. 📱 Apple To Unveil First Touchscreen MacBook and New iPad mini at End-October: Major form-factor overhaul for Mac product line.

4. 💾 Samsung Q3 Operating Profit Tops 100 Trillion KRW For First Time, Surging Nearly 9x YoY: Storage chips continue to prove their value as AI strategic assets in earnings reports.

V. Key Watchlist For Today

· 🕊️ Nobel Peace Prize Announcement: The selection carries special symbolic weight amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

· 📊 University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Preliminary and Inflation Expectations (Oct): After multi-decade sentiment lows, inflation expectations remain a core Fed metric.

· 🗣️ Boston Fed President Collins Speech: Watch for fresh remarks on rate hike trajectory.