Framework:​ Dual-track analysis — Technical Structure + Macro Fundamentals

Audience:​ G10 FX Traders (Focus on CAD crosses & Oil correlation)

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

USD/CAD remains bullish above 1.3850.

The key trigger is the BoC Rate Decision.

A reclaim of 1.3970 targets 1.4140 (Nov 2025 High).

A break below 1.3850 (200-Day SMA) invalidates the current bias.

MARKET DATA SNAPSHOT

Price Levels

• Current Price: 1.3920
• Resistance 1 (6M High): 1.3969
• Resistance 2 (Major Target): 1.4140
• Support 1 (200-SMA): 1.3850
• Support 2 (Breakout Zone): 1.3750

Macro / Pricing

• BoC Policy Rate (Expected): 2.25%
• Swaps Pricing (12M): +50 bps
• WTI Crude (Correlation): $78.40

Momentum

• RSI (Daily): Mid-50s (Cooling from overbought)
• Trend: Higher Highs & Higher Lows intact

WHY THIS MATTERS: THE CATALYSTS

1. BoC Decision (June 11, 21:45 SGT / 09:45 EDT)

The BoC is set to hold at 2.25%. Markets have already priced in 50bps of hikes over the next year.

The risk is a "sell the fact" reaction if Governor Macklem sounds cautious about global growth.

2. The Oil Factor

WTI Crude is consolidating near $78.40. Stable oil provides a floor for CAD, but not enough to reverse USD/CAD unless WTI breaks $80.00.

3. US PPI (June 12, 20:30 SGT)

A hot US PPI print reinforces the "higher for longer" Fed narrative, adding fuel to USD/CAD upside.

TECHNICAL DEEP DIVE

Structure

USD/CAD remains above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (1.3850).

The pair is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.3350.

Scenarios

• Bullish:​ A reclaim of 1.3970 opens the door to 1.4140.
• Bearish:​ A break below 1.3850 invalidates the bias, exposing 1.3750.

TRADE SCENARIO FRAMEWORK

Scenario A: Bullish Continuation (Base Case)

Condition: BoC cautious OR strong US PPI.

Entry: Buy on dips 1.3880 – 1.3900

Target 1: 1.3969 (6-month high)

Target 2: 1.4140 (2025 high)

Stop Loss: Below 1.3840

Scenario B: Bearish Reversal (Hawkish Surprise)

Condition: BoC signals imminent hikes OR US PPI soft.

Entry: Sell on break below 1.3850

Target 1: 1.3750

Target 2: 1.3650

Stop Loss: Above 1.3980

KEY EVENTS CALENDAR

Date & Time (SGT): June 11, 21:45​

BoC Rate Decision — HIGH IMPACT

Date & Time (SGT): June 11, 22:30​

BoC Press Conference — HIGH IMPACT

Date & Time (SGT): June 12, 20:30​

US PPI (May) — MEDIUM IMPACT

APAC MARKET SPOTLIGHT

SGD / MYT Traders

USD/CAD strength signals broad USD strength. A break above 1.4140 impacts regional carry trades.

Commodity Correlation

Monitor CAD/MXN for relative value if Oil diverges.

DATA SOURCES & REFERENCES

• Bank of Canada (BoC) Official Schedule
• Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) – Elias Haddad
• Bloomberg Swap Pricing
• TradingView (WTI & FX Levels)

RISK DISCLOSURE

Risk Warning: Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all invested capital.

These products may not be suitable for all investors.

Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved.