Capital Outflows vs. On-Chain Accumulation: Bitcoin Sends Contradictory Signals

Last week, global crypto ETPs recorded $1.23 billion in net outflows, with Bitcoin-only products accounting for over $1.03 billion of the total. 21 Shares’ ARKB, Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT led the retreat, ending a six-week streak of inflows.

source：Bitcoin ETFs data

Meanwhile, the Bitwise Crypto Sentiment Index pulled back from its highest level since May 2025 to neutral territory, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped back into “fear.”

On-chain data, however, paints a sharply different picture. Addresses holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days now control approximately 14.85 million BTC — 74.3% of circulating supply, an all‑time high. Bitwise notes that this shift from short‑term speculators to long‑term holders typically occurs in the late bear market phase. As liquid, tradable supply shrinks, the market becomes prone to sharp volatility on returning demand — Bitcoin’s seller risk ratio has fallen to near its lowest on record.

The clash between outflows and on‑chain accumulation has trapped Bitcoin in a tight technical and behavioral squeeze.

From on‑chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s perspective, price is pinned between two critical levels:

• Resistance: ~$82,100 (200‑day moving average)
• Support: ~$77,900 (short‑term holder realized price)

“Every bounce meets the same reaction: short‑term holders sell into strength, capping upside,” Adler wrote. “This is not coincidence — it’s a mechanism. The $82,100 resistance is reinforced not just technically by the 200‑DMA, but behaviorally by short‑term holders themselves: they sell consistently in this zone whenever the market attempts to rally.”

Behind the price action, macro and regulatory variables add further complexity.

Japanese government bond yields continue to climb, with the 10‑year JGB yield hitting 2.8% — a 29‑year high. This reduces the appeal of carry trades and raises the risk of capital repatriation, indirectly tightening liquidity conditions for crypto.

On the regulatory front, the U.S. Senate advanced the CLARITY Act last week by a 15–9 vote. The bill aims to clarify crypto regulation: defining when tokens qualify as securities vs. commodities, placing primary oversight with the CFTC, and establishing clearer rules for exchanges and DeFi platforms. Separately, the Senate confirmed Kevin Walsh as Fed Governor by 51–45, clearing the path for him to become Fed Chair.

Bitwise concludes that despite near‑term outflows and weaker sentiment, sellable supply keeps shrinking, raising the odds of a long‑term bottom forming in the next 1–2 months. The core dilemma is no longer “will it rally?” but “who strikes first when sellers are exhausted.”