Daily Commodities Highlights – Jul 07 – LNG carrier attacked in Gulf of Oman; geopolitical risk premium returns

📌 What Moves Markets Today

An LNG carrier was attacked in the Gulf of Oman, with Iranian forces reportedly firing missiles at vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Two commercial ships were struck. Trump threatened to destroy all Iranian power plants in "less than an afternoon." The attack has brought geopolitical risk back to the forefront. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia slashed its August crude prices for Asia by $11/bbl, the deepest cut in at least 26 years. US SPR stocks fell to their lowest since April 1983.

🔴 Bearish for oil on Saudi price cuts and rising OPEC+ supply, but upside risk from Strait tensions.

🟡 Gold neutral—safe-haven demand supports, but dollar strength caps the upside.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Israel's energy minister: Expanding natural gas exports is a key goal of the new exploration round → A long-term supply signal. Not an immediate price driver.

- Germany plans to build an emergency natural gas reserve of up to €1.5 billion, plus operating costs → A precautionary move. Europe is preparing for winter.

- UAE crude output jumped to over 3.8 million b/d in June, the second-highest on record → More supply is hitting the market. Bearish for oil.

- Saudi Arabia cut August crude prices for Asia by $11/bbl, the deepest cut in at least 26 years → A massive discount. Saudi is fighting for market share aggressively.

- US SPR stocks fell by about 6.2 million barrels last week to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest since April 1983 → The SPR is at critical lows. A long-term concern.

Metals & Mining

- South32's $2 billion zinc-manganese project in Arizona is set to be approved → More supply coming online. Bearish for zinc and manganese.

- BHP approved to launch a $15 billion copper mine expansion in Chile → Copper supply is set to increase. A bearish signal for copper prices.

- India and Indonesia signed an agreement to strengthen critical minerals and steel supply chains → A strategic partnership. Long-term implications for global supply chains.

- Citi has become the fifth bank to provide clearing services in the London over-the-counter gold market → Greater liquidity and participation in the gold market. A positive development.

- Goldman cut its Q4 2026 LME aluminum forecast to $2,950/t from $3,200, and its 2027 average forecast to $2,700/t from $2,950 → A bearish revision. Aluminum prices face headwinds.

- Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive: The Central Gold Clearing System is now operational; first gold transaction completed. Tax incentives for gold trading to be provided. → A boost for Asian gold trading infrastructure.

Geopolitics

- An LNG carrier was attacked in the Gulf of Oman → The first direct attack on energy infrastructure in weeks. Supply risks are back.

- Trump: "I can destroy all of Iran's power plants in less than an afternoon." → A sharp escalation in rhetoric. Markets are on edge.

- Iranian media: A gas carrier was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings → Iran is asserting control. Risks are rising.

- US officials: Iran fired at least two missiles at vessels in the Strait. Two commercial ships were hit and severely damaged. → A serious escalation. Shipping risks are rising.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jul 07, 2026

WTI (XTIUSD) Crude – $69.10

WTI rebounded slightly after hitting a recent low of $66.95, but remains capped by a descending trendline that has been in place since late June. Price is currently testing the convergence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $69.07 and the descending trendline—a key near-term resistance zone.

MACD histograms are shrinking, suggesting downside momentum is slowing. KDJ is converging, pointing to a consolidation phase. A break below $66.00 could open the door to $60-$55.

Support: $68.30 / $67.20 / $66.00

Resistance: $69.50 / $70.00 / $70.60

Gold – $4,122

Gold is down about 1% today to $4,122, extending yesterday's losses. Price briefly broke below the $4,130 support level before finding some buying interest. On the daily chart, gold remains below all major SMAs, keeping the near-term bias bearish. The 10-day SMA has provided some support recently, but resistance near $4,180 is capping any recovery.

The 200-day SMA near $4,485 is the first key resistance, followed by the 38.2% retracement of the January-June decline at $4,574. Until these levels are reclaimed, any recovery should be viewed as range-bound.

Support: $4,128 / $4,091 / $4,018

Resistance: $4,202 / $4,239 / $4,312

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz – will the attack escalate?

- 🇸🇦 Saudi price cuts – more cuts to come?

- 🇺🇸 SPR – how low will it go?

- 🥇 Gold – safe-haven demand returning?

- 🛢️ OPEC+ supply – more surplus ahead?