Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 22 – Qatar-Pakistan announce 60-day roadmap for US-Iran deal; WTI reverses sharply

📌 What Moves Markets Today

Qatar and Pakistan announced a formal 60-day roadmap aimed at securing a final US-Iran peace deal. This has triggered a sharp reversal in oil prices, with WTI falling hard toward $70. Gold is holding modest gains as lower oil prices ease inflation and rate hike concerns.

🔴 Bearish for oil as supply fears fade.

🟢 Positive for gold as lower oil reduces inflation pressure and rate hike risks.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Libya's NOC: Crude output reached 1.44 million b/d, the highest since 2013 → More supply is hitting the market. A bearish signal.

- Iraq deputy oil minister: Iraq plans to gradually restore output to pre-conflict levels of 4.2-4.3 million b/d → A large wave of supply is coming. Markets are bracing.

- Qatar accelerating the recall of empty LNG carriers to prepare for restoring about one-fifth of global supply → LNG supply is set to return. Bearish for gas prices.

- Over 100 companies including Nestlé and Uber call on governments to make electrification a core economic strategy → A long-term demand shift. Not an immediate price driver.

- Malaysia to cut subsidized diesel prices → Lower fuel costs for consumers. A modest positive for demand.

- Kuwait asks buyers to "self-collect" refined products → A logistical shift. Could indicate supply is becoming more available.

Metals & Mining

- Guinea president bans exports of raw gold ore → A supply restriction. Could support gold prices.

- Indonesia trade ministry: May refined tin exports at 3,246.06 tons → Steady supply. No major surprises.

- JPMorgan: Maintains bullish view on copper, expects prices to continue rising toward $15,000 per ton in coming quarters → A strong bullish call. Copper remains a structural long.

Agriculture

- Thailand deputy PM: Thailand will not face fertilizer shortages as stranded cargoes near the Strait are moving again and domestic prices are falling → A relief for Thai farmers. Lower input costs ahead.

Geopolitics

- Iran's supreme leader advisor: If the deal remains only on paper, energy flows in the Middle East will stay disrupted → A warning that the deal must be implemented, not just signed.

- Qatar and Pakistan joint statement: First round of US-Iran talks concluded, with a 60-day roadmap finalized → A concrete timeline. Markets are watching for follow-through.

- Iran foreign minister: "Significant progress" made on ending the Lebanon conflict → A wider de-escalation could be underway.

- US diplomat: Progress has been made on Strait of Hormuz navigation issues → Another positive signal for reopening.

- Israel to end nationwide public restrictions, including along the Lebanon-Israel border → A sign of easing tensions.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 22, 2026 04:12 AM (GMT-4:00)

WTI Crude – $76.04

Resistance: 76.03 (R1) / 76.41 (R2) / 76.82 (R3)

Support: 75.24 (S1) / 74.83 (S2) / 74.45 (S3)

WTI reversed sharply on Monday after the Qatar-Pakistan roadmap announcement, falling hard toward $70. The bullish gap from early Asia has been fully erased. The 20-day MA at 76.03 is now acting as resistance. RSI at 52.3 is neutral but trending lower. MACD remains barely positive. A break below S1 at 75.24 could accelerate selling.

Gold – $4,300

Resistance: 4,334 (200-day EMA), 4,400

Support: 4,277, 4,230

Gold is holding modest gains after snapping a three-day losing streak. The 200-day EMA near $4,334 is the key level bulls need to reclaim. Failure to do so leaves the metal vulnerable. RSI is in the upper-30s, suggesting subdued buying interest. MACD remains negative but the histogram is shrinking, hinting that downside momentum is easing. However, until the 200-day EMA is recovered on a daily closing basis, rebounds are likely to remain corrective.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran deal progress – will the 60-day roadmap hold?

- 🛢️ OPEC+ meeting – any output policy changes?

- 🇨🇳 China economic data – demand signals for commodities

- 🇺🇸 US inflation data – impact on Fed rate expectations

- 🇯🇵 Japan CPI – BOJ rate path implications