Daily Forex Highlights – July 8, 2026 – RBNZ hikes to 3.25%, US trade gap widens

📌 What Moves Markets Today

RBNZ raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% and signaled more tightening ahead; US trade deficit widened more than expected to $77.6 billion in May, the largest since March 2025.

🔴 Bearish for USD → Wider US trade deficit weighs on Q2 GDP and the dollar.

🟢 Bullish for NZD → RBNZ's hawkish 25bps hike to 3.25% supports the kiwi.

🟡 Neutral for EUR → French growth downgrade offsets broad dollar weakness.

🔥 Quick Takes

💵 USD

- US May trade deficit widened to -$77.6B, largest since March 2025 → reflects import resilience and export softness, weighing on Q2 GDP growth

- Fed's Williams sees steady growth trajectory; policy on track and data-dependent → no urgency to adjust, keeping markets guessing on timing

- UN: US remains top FDI destination in 2025 despite lower inflows → reinforces structural dollar demand, limiting downside pressure

💶 EUR

- France slashes 2026 GDP forecast to 0.7% from 0.9% → dims growth outlook for the bloc's second-largest economy, pressuring EUR

- ECB's Panetta: cannot treat latest energy shock as transitory; policy robustness key → signals caution, pushes back against early dovish bets

💷 GBP

- BOE Financial Stability Report released; GBP and gilt yields hold firm → suggests markets are pricing in persistent inflation and sticky rates

💴 JPY

- Government may tweak monetary policy language in annual policy guidelines → hints at policy normalisation, providing subtle support for JPY

- BOJ's Asada: needs demand-driven inflation before backing rate hike → keeps BOJ behind peers, weighing on JPY outlook

🇰🇷 KRW

- Think tank: chip boom offsets manufacturing weakness, economy on recovery track → supports KRW on fundamental grounds

- Finance ministry to enhance FX monitoring system for night-trading volatility → authorities on alert for sharp won moves

- Sources: USD/KRW forward market sees dollar selling linked to SK Hynix ADR listing → adds downward pressure on USD/KRW

🌏 Others

- RBNZ raises OCR by 25bps to 3.25%, signals further tightening possible → NZD surges on hawkish surprise

- RBNZ's Orr: inflation may have peaked; rates moving toward neutral → suggests tightening cycle nearing its end

- Bank of Thailand minutes: inflation likely to exceed target through remainder of 2026 on energy and cost pass-through → supports case for further hikes

- RBA's Hunter: recent oil shock not yet slowing the economy; will act as needed to ensure inflation returns to target → keeps hawkish bias intact

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of July 8, 2026

📈 DXY – 104.85

DXY remains capped below 105.00 after failing to sustain break above the 200-day moving average. Price action shows lower highs since Monday's open. RSI sits near 52, suggesting neutral momentum with no clear directional bias. MACD lines remain flat around the zero line, indicating range-bound conditions. Selling pressure emerged following the wider-than-expected trade deficit print.

Support: 104.20 / 103.70

Resistance: 105.30 / 105.80

📈 EUR/USD – 1.0750

EUR/USD held above 1.0720 support despite the downgrade to France's growth forecast, as dollar weakness from trade data offset bearish euro headlines. Price is trading between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. RSI at 55, showing mild upward bias but lacks conviction. MACD histogram turned positive, hinting at potential upside in the near term. Resistance at 1.0800 proved formidable earlier this week.

Support: 1.0720 / 1.0670

Resistance: 1.0800 / 1.0850

📈 USD/JPY – 155.80

USD/JPY remains well bid above 155.50 following the BOJ's cautious stance via Asada's comments. The pair is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming the broader uptrend. RSI at 60 points to intact bullish momentum. MACD lines continue to widen in positive territory. However, potential tweaks to Japan's policy language could trigger volatility, with attention on any BOJ signals.

Support: 155.00 / 154.50

Resistance: 156.50 / 157.00

🔮 Looking Ahead

🇺🇸 Fed speakers for further policy cues

🇯🇵 Any official clarification on monetary policy language tweak

🇹🇭 Thailand inflation data for confirmation of BoT tightening path

🇦🇺 RBA communications on oil shock impact