Daily Forex Highlights – Jun 10 – Fed holds steady in June, most economists see no rate move for rest of 2026

📌 Top Story

Reuters poll: All 102 economists expect Fed to hold rates steady at June meeting; 72 see no change for all of 2026

What happened: A Reuters poll shows all 102 economists expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% in June. Seventy-two of them expect no rate change for the entire year.

Why it matters: The message is nearly unanimous. The Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future. No cuts, no hikes.

Market impact: 🟡 Neutral for the dollar. The market has already priced this in.

🔥 Quick Takes

Dollar

- 🏦 Moody's chief economist: The US economy is on the edge of a recession → A warning from a respected voice. Markets are watching for cracks.

- 🏦 Goldman Sachs: The World Cup will add about 40,000 US jobs in June, but August nonfarm payrolls will drop by 15,000 after the tournament ends → A temporary boost, then a payback. Don't read too much into June's numbers.

- 📊 ADP weekly employment: Private sector added 29,000 jobs per week on average in the four weeks to May 23. Job growth has slowed for the third straight week. → A clear cooling trend. The labor market is losing momentum.

- 📊 Reuters poll: All 102 economists see no Fed move in June. 72 see no change for all of 2026. → See Top Story.

Other

- 🇮🇳 Trader: RBI may be selling dollars to support the rupee → Intervention signs. The rupee is under pressure.

- 🏦 JPMorgan upgrades emerging market currency rating to overweight from neutral → A bullish call on EM FX. Flows could shift.

- 🇰🇷 Korea finance ministry: Will inspect speculative and disruptive FX trading → Verbal intervention is escalating. Concrete steps may follow.

- 🇹🇭 Thai business group: Raises 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5%-3.0% from 2.0%-3.0% → Higher inflation expectations. The baht may face less easing pressure.

- 🇯🇵 Reuters poll: Expects BOJ to raise rates to 1.50% in Q2 2027, pulled forward from Q3 2027 in May survey → A slightly more hawkish timeline. The yen gets modest support.

- 🇰🇷 Sources: Korea has absorbed about $1.5 billion in FX demand related to the SpaceX IPO. Downward pressure on the won has eased after the demand was digested. → A temporary factor has passed. Relief for the won.

- 🇪🇺 ECB's Villeroy: Europe needs more monetary and payment sovereignty. There is a clear opportunity to boost the euro's status. Europe needs safe euro assets. → A push for euro internationalization. Long-term supportive for the currency.

- 🇮🇳 Indian official: Government will take steps to boost net capital inflows. Middle East tensions are not hurting remittances. No plans to restrict capital outflows. → A reassuring message. No new controls.

- 🇨🇦 WSJ survey: All 14 economists expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady. Economists expect the BoC to lower its rate hike expectations. → A dovish signal. The loonie may face pressure.

🔮 Looking Ahead

- 🇺🇸 US jobs data – is the slowdown accelerating?

- 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada rate decision – will they signal a pivot?

- 🇮🇳 Rupee – will RBI intervention intensify?

- 🇰🇷 Won – will authorities take concrete action?

- 🇯🇵 BOJ – will the hawkish timeline hold?