Daily Forex Highlights – Jun 30 – USD/JPY hits 40-year high above 162; intervention fears cap further gains

📌 What Moves Markets Today

USD/JPY broke above 162.00 for the first time since December 1986, hitting a fresh 40-year high. The pair is now trading near 162.40, with intervention fears capping further upside. The US dollar remains broadly supported, while the yen continues to weaken on the BOJ's dovish stance. A survey shows central banks are turning less bullish on the dollar, marking a potential long-term shift.

🔴 Bearish for yen as USD/JPY breaks to new highs.

🟡 Neutral for USD—central banks are turning less bullish on the greenback long-term.

🔥 Quick Takes

Dollar

- US Supreme Court blocked Trump from firing Fed Governor Cook → A legal victory for Fed independence. The administration cannot remove a sitting governor without cause.

- Trump: Will take immediate action on Cook's position → The fight is not over. Political pressure on the Fed continues.

- OMFIF survey: For the first time, more central banks expect to reduce dollar allocations over the next decade than increase them → A significant shift. The dollar's reserve currency dominance may be facing long-term headwinds.

Euro

- Spain inflation unexpectedly beat the ECB target → A hawkish data point. The ECB may need to keep rates higher for longer.

- ECB: No rush for multiple rate hikes; the probability of a negative scenario has dropped sharply → A dovish tilt. The ECB is signaling patience.

- ECB sources: Although a rate hike could be delayed, it is still on the agenda. Rapidly falling oil prices have reduced pressure for a July hike; September now looks more likely. But if June inflation data surprises to the upside, a July hike could come back into play. → The ECB is waiting for data. July is not dead, but September is the current baseline.

Pound

- UK political uncertainty is driving investors to aggressively short the pound → Sterling is under pressure. The leadership race is weighing on sentiment.

- UK government: Defense science lab to receive £580 million in infrastructure funding over four years → A defense spending commitment. Not a market driver.

- UK cost pressures ease; food inflation falls to 15-month low. Q1 GDP growth confirmed at 0.6% → A mixed picture. Food inflation is cooling, but growth remains modest.

Yen

- USD/JPY broke above 162.00, a 40-year high → The yen is at its weakest since 1986. Markets are on intervention watch.

- Former BOJ official: Next rate hike likely before December → A hawkish timeline. The BOJ may move in the coming months.

- Finance Minister Katayama: Still maintaining a "stable" tone; will not comment on specific FX levels; will respond appropriately to currency moves when needed → Verbal intervention, but no action yet. Markets are watching for actual steps.

Other

- Indonesian bonds attract $1.2 billion in inflows as yields rise → Foreign money is flowing back into Indonesia. Supportive for the rupiah.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 30, 2026

EUR/USD – 1.1400

The pair is trading near 1.1400, snapping a three-day winning streak as the dollar firms. Price remains below the 200-period EMA (1.1538) and the 1.1500 psychological level, keeping the broader bias bearish. RSI near 49.1 suggests a neutral bias after recovering from oversold conditions. MACD is marginally positive. Support is at 1.1380 and 1.1335. Resistance is at 1.1500 and 1.1538 (200-period EMA). A break above 1.1500 would be needed to shift the outlook.

GBP/USD – 1.3460

The pair is trading near 1.3460. UK political uncertainty and aggressive short positioning are weighing on sterling. Resistance is at 1.3500 (May 26 high). Support is at 1.3425 (20-EMA) and 1.3327 (uptrend line). The near-term bias remains cautious.

USD/JPY – 162.40

The pair broke above 162.00 for the first time since December 1986, trading near 162.40. The uptrend remains intact, with price holding well above the 20-day EMA at 160.85. RSI at 71.6 is in overbought territory, suggesting strong momentum but increasing vulnerability to a pullback. Support is at 160.85 (20-day EMA). Resistance is at 162.00 and 163.00. Intervention risks are capping further upside.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇺🇸 US JOLTS job openings data – labor market strength

- 🇩🇪 Germany preliminary CPI – euro zone inflation signal

- 🇪🇺 ECB sources – any shift in July vs September pricing

- 🇯🇵 Japan intervention – verbal or actual?

- 🇬🇧 UK political developments – leadership race impact