Global FX Weekly: Middle East Ceasefire Uncertainty & Key Risk Events Guide G10 Price Action

EUR/USD Steadies Below 1.1400 Ahead of Key Risk Events

The euro is holding steady below 1.1400 in early European trade, with markets weighing tentative US-Iran de-escalation headlines while awaiting major week-long catalysts. The ECB’s annual forum and critical US June payrolls data are set to drive volatility through the session, keeping near-term EUR/USD action range-bound for now.

Technically, the pair retains a soft near-term bias. Repeated failures to break above the 4-hour 100-period SMA have capped bullish attempts, limiting meaningful upside traction. While MACD has edged marginally positive and RSI near 33 is recovering from oversold levels, the improvement remains modest and signals no decisive trend shift.

Any bounce is likely to remain corrective. Immediate resistance sits at 1.1440, with a stronger hurdle at the 100-period SMA of 1.1514. Until that level is cleared, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to fresh downside tests.

GBP/USD Dips Near 1.3200 On Geopolitical & Political Uncertainty

GBP/USD edged lower to 1.3200 in Monday’s Asian session, with a bullish opening gap quickly fading. The pair faced mild pressure from safe-haven USD demand, as markets weigh fragile US-Iran truce risks ahead of Tuesday’s Qatar diplomatic talks. Lingering geopolitical uncertainty keeps global risk sentiment subdued.

Domestic UK political volatility further caps sterling upside. Following Keir Starmer’s resignation, leadership frontrunner Andy Burnham is set to release his policy vision, with a potential mid-July takeover keeping GBP cautious.

Technically, the pair holds a bearish near-term bias, trading firmly below the 20-period EMA. RSI sits below the 50 midline, confirming persistent downside momentum despite minor short-term stabilisation.

Immediate resistance is at 1.3215 and the key 1.3327 trendline, with a clean break needed to reverse bearish bias. Initial support rests at 1.3180, with deeper downside exposure toward 1.3137 on intensified selling. Overall, GBP/USD remains in a near-term downtrend, constrained by geopolitical risks and UK political uncertainty.

USD/JPY Consolidates Below 162.00 Near Multi-Decade Highs

USD/JPY is consolidating just below 162.00, lingering close to its recent 40-year peak. The pair’s upside is capped by persistent Japanese intervention risks, while unresolved Middle East tensions continue to underpin broad US dollar demand.

Momentum indicators signal cooling bullish momentum rather than a full reversal. RSI has eased from extreme overbought territory back toward neutral levels, while MACD has dipped slightly below zero. Even so, price action remains comfortably above the 4-hour 100-period SMA, keeping the broader uptrend structurally intact.

Near-term corrections are likely well-supported. Immediate support rests around 161.63, with a stronger technical buffer at the 100-period SMA of 160.74. As long as these levels hold, USD/JPY retains scope for renewed upside once momentum stabilises.

AUD/USD Defensive Below 0.6900 on Geopolitical Caution

The Australian dollar remains on the backfoot below 0.6900, pressured by lingering uncertainty over US-Iran diplomatic progress. Traders are adopting a cautious stance ahead of Tuesday’s release of the RBA June policy meeting minutes, which will guide near-term domestic rate expectations.

Technically, AUD/USD holds a clear bearish bias, trading well beneath the 20-day EMA at 0.7025. The RSI sits deep in oversold territory at 26.6, highlighting stretched downside momentum after recent steep declines, though no material reversal signal has emerged yet.

Key resistance remains at the 20-day EMA of 0.7025; reclaiming that level is required to ease immediate bearish pressure. On the downside, major support lies at the March low of 0.6833, with a break opening a deeper correction toward 0.6766.