Gold Holds Above $4,100 as Rising Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns

Gold traded above $4,100 during Thursday's Asian session, with prices consolidating after reaching a more than two-week high earlier this week. While safe-haven demand continues to provide support, renewed gains in crude oil have revived inflation concerns, prompting investors to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have pushed oil prices to their highest level since mid-June, raising concerns that higher energy costs could slow the recent disinflation trend and keep the Fed cautious on interest rates.

Gold is approaching a key technical resistance zone, with buyers needing a decisive breakout to extend the recent recovery.

XAU/USD stalled near $4,155-$4,165, where the 100-period EMA on the four-hour chart aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline. Although momentum remains constructive, the RSI continues to hold below overbought territory while the MACD stays in positive territory, suggesting bullish momentum is intact but losing some speed.

A sustained move above $4,165 would strengthen the bullish outlook and expose the next upside target near $4,304. On the downside, initial support remains around $3,941, where buyers could look to rebuild a stronger technical base if prices retreat.

For now, the tug-of-war between geopolitical safe-haven demand and rising Fed rate expectations is likely to keep gold trading within a broad range, with the next breakout depending on whether buyers can overcome resistance near $4,165.