Morning Brief: Trump Rejects Iran’s Peace Proposal; Oil Surges, Strong NFP Pushes US Stocks to Fresh Highs

At a Glance

🚫 Trump rejected Iran’s peace response as totally unacceptable, crude jumped $3 on geopolitical repricing.

📉📈 US April NFP beat estimates sharply; S&P and Nasdaq notched six straight weekly gains, the longest streak in 18 months. Semiconductor index surged 5.5% to a new high.

🛢️ WTI crude tumbled 6.4% for the week before Sunday’s sharp rebound; Brent closed at $101.29/bbl.

🍎 Apple reached a preliminary chipmaking deal with Intel; Intel soared 14% on Friday.

1. Market Outlook

Key Event

Trump quickly turned down Iran’s peace proposal over the weekend. Iran demanded full ceasefire across all fronts and secure Hormuz shipping lanes. The rejection erased truce expectations, pushing crude higher by $3. US April nonfarm payrolls topped forecasts, lifting US equities on Friday.

Market Reaction

US major indexes hit fresh highs post strong NFP. Semiconductors outperformed; Intel surged 14% and Micron gained over 15%. CoreWeave dropped more than 10% on weak Q2 guidance. Oil rebounded sharply after Trump’s rejection, pointing to a gap-up open in Monday’s Asian session.

Exclusive View

The rapid rejection signals tougher US negotiation stances. The $3 oil jump fully prices faded ceasefire odds. Strong NFP reinforces the US fundamental bull narrative: solid employment, massive AI capital expenditure, and the best quarterly earnings in 20 years. Oil’s rebound is short-term noise; trend direction hinges on Trump’s next diplomatic move.

2. Overnight Markets

Key Market Summary

Better-than-expected NFP boosted US stocks to new highs, led by chips. Crude fell sharply weekly before a weekend geopolitical rebound.

U.S. Equities

- S&P 500: +0.84% to 7,398.93

- Nasdaq Composite: +1.71% to 26,247.08

- Dow Jones: +0.02% to 49,609.16

💡 Robust payroll data fueled dual bullish sentiment: solid economy + AI spending. The semiconductor index rallied 5.5%. AMD surged26% for the earnings week. CoreWeave slumped on profitability concerns for AI compute leasing.

European Equities

Pan-European STOXX 600 closed -0.7% at 612.14.

💡 European assets remain sensitive to elevated oil prices above $100, underperforming US benchmarks.

Fixed Income

US 10-year yield fell 3.8 bps to 4.356%, down roughly 2 bps weekly, ending two consecutive weeks of increases.

💡 Bond markets interpreted strong jobs data as soft-landing signals rather than economic overheating. Stable inflation supports benign bond sentiment.

Commodities

- WTI June Crude: +0.64% to $95.42/bbl, weekly drop6.4%

- Brent July Crude: +1.23% to $101.29/bbl, weekly drop 6.36%

- COMEX May Gold: +0.44% to $4,720.4/oz, weekly gain 1.95%

- COMEX May Silver:+0.87% to $80.395/oz, weekly gain 5.85%

- COMEX May Copper: +1.98% to $6.249/lb, weekly gain 5.34%

💡 Oil plunged on early-week truce hopes before a weekend geopolitical rebound. Industrial and precious metals rallied broadly on improved macro sentiment.

Foreign Exchange

Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 97.877 (weekly -0.3%). EUR +0.5% at 1.17808; USD/JPY -0.2% at 156.695; GBP +0.6% at 1.3626.

💡 The USD weakened despite strong NFP, backed by improving non-US economies and dovish Fed expectations. The yen stabilized near 156.7 post intervention.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin traded steadily at $80,240; Ethereum rose over 1% to $2,308.8.

💡 Risk sentiment stayed firm; Bitcoin held above the key $80,000 threshold.

3. Macro News

🕊️ Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Takes Effect for Three Days

Both sides exchanged prisoners while mutually accusing truce violations. Putin is open to third-party talks. The US remains ready for mediation.

Insight: Weak trust limits truce effectiveness. Russia may tie Ukraine negotiations to Middle East issues.

🏦 Fed Financial Stability Report Flags Geopolitics & Oil Risks

Middle East conflict and oil shocks top systemic risk concerns. AI and private credit risks are also escalating.

Insight: The Fed officially prioritizes Iran-oil risks, increasing oil’s weight in monetary policy decisions.

🇪🇺 ECB Lagarde: Prepared to Counter Oil-Driven Inflation

Rising fuel and production costs keep inflation pressure persistent. The ECB stands ready to adjust policy.

Insight: Policy tone shifts from wait-and-see to proactive caution. Sustained $100+ oil may trigger June rhetoric tweaks.

🇨🇦 Canada Unemployment Rate Hits Six-Month High at 6.9%

The economy lost 17,700 jobs, pressured by US tariffs and trade uncertainty.

Insight: Canada acts as an economic leading indicator. Tariff tightening may further weigh on US manufacturing employment.

4. Corporate News

🍎 Apple Inks Preliminary Chipmaking Deal with Intel

Year-long negotiations finalized the partnership. Apple also explored Samsung foundry cooperation to diversify supply chains.

— Intel secures a high-tier client to weaken TSMC’s exclusive dominance in advanced chips.

🏭 TSMC April Revenue Growth Sharply Decelerates

April revenue rose 17.5% YoY, down from March’s 45.2%. Annual capex ceiling remains $56B, backed by massive AI capital spending.

— Seasonal drags affect single-month data; heavy capex reflects confidence in long-term AI demand.

📊 S&P 500 Posts Best Q1 Earnings in 20 Years

Earnings grew 27% YoY; Magnificent Seven profits surged 57%. All 11 sectors posted positive growth for the first time in four years.

— Broad-based earnings strength underpins US stock uptrend beyond AI individual outperformance.

⚽ 2026 World Cup to Adopt Full AI Operation

The tournament is expected to add $410B to global GDP and generate 2 exabytes of data.

— Large-scale AI integration marks a milestone for global sports technology commercialization.

5. Key Events to Watch Today

💵 Circle Earnings Release: As the issuer of USDC, Circle’s earnings and reserve structure reflect real profitability across the stablecoin sector.