Morning Brief: US‑Iran exchange first reciprocal strikes in one‑month span; Trump threatens further action against Iran. Nasdaq posts nearly 4% monthly gain for August

【Key Snapshot】

· ⚠️ The US and Iran traded reciprocal strikes for the first time in a month. Trump threatened further military action against Iran as geopolitical risks resurface. Major US equity benchmarks logged back‑to‑back losses.

· 📈 US equities closed broadly higher across August. Nasdaq led gains with a nearly 4% monthly rise, snapping two consecutive monthly declines alongside the S&P 500. Dow Jones notched its fifth straight monthly advance.

【Market Outlook】

Core Events

‑ US‑Iran exchange first reciprocal strikes in one month: After weeks of mostly economic confrontation, the US and Iran carried out mutual retaliatory attacks, raising risks of an escalation into open hostilities. Trump has vowed further strikes against Iran. → WTI crude +2.83% at $85.76/bbl; Brent crude +2.71% at $90.49/bbl. 10‑Year Treasury yield rose 3.6 bps to 4.758%, hitting its highest mark since January 15.

Exclusive View

US equities delivered broad‑based gains in August, with Nasdaq climbing nearly 4%. Renewed geopolitical tensions at the start of September add extra headwinds for a seasonally weak trading month.

【Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: Dow Jones ‑0.70% at 53185.90; S&P 500 ‑0.33% at 7686.14; Nasdaq Composite ‑0.12% at 26370.89. August monthly performance: Dow +1.50% (five consecutive monthly gains); S&P 500 +0.45% (ended two‑month losing streak); Nasdaq +3.67% (ended two‑month losing streak).

‑ European Equities: STOXX Europe 600 ‑0.6% at 651.1. London markets were closed with thin trading activity.

‑ Fixed Income: 10‑Year US Treasury yield rose 3.6 bps to 4.758%, intraday peak at 4.768%, highest since January 15.

‑ Commodities: WTI Oct crude +2.83% at $85.76/bbl, August +1.29%; Brent crude +2.71% at $90.49/bbl, August +0.41%. COMEX Gold ‑1.05% at $4431.1/oz, August +9.43%; Silver ‑1.16% at $66.221/oz, August +14.98%.

‑ FX: US Dollar Index ‑0.24% at 99.43; EURUSD +0.3% at 1.1616; GBPUSD +0.1% at 1.3547; USDJPY ‑0.2% at 159.73.

‑ Crypto: Bitcoin +0.58%; Ethereum +0.15% at $2474.

【Macro Highlights】

1. ⚠️ US‑Iran trade first reciprocal strikes in a month, Trump threatens further blows against Iran. The mutual retaliatory strikes raise risks of an escalation to open warfare. Trump signaled additional military action against Tehran.

Insight: Optimism over unimpeded shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has faded amid renewed military conflict. Higher crude prices and long‑end bond yields reflect markets repricing geopolitical risk systematically.

2. 🏛️ Warsh remarks at G20: A global investment boom is driving economic expansion. He noted the trend has reversed the flow of excess savings toward low‑yielding assets. Comments align with his hawkish Jackson Hole speech.

3. 💴 Bessent expects Japan to take steps to strengthen the yen, bolstering market bets for a September BOJ rate hike.

【Corporate News】

1. 📱 Tim Cook steps down as Apple CEO, releasing an internal letter marking 15‑year tenure at the helm. Apple enters the Ternus era, with the September 10 foldable iPhone launch serving as his first major test.

2. 🤖 OpenAI ChatGPT advertising run‑rate tops $1 billion annually. AI monetization is expanding beyond subscription models toward ad‑driven revenue streams.

【Today’s Key Watchlist】

· 📊 US August ISM Manufacturing Index. Prior 46.8, consensus 47.2. Watch whether activity remains in contraction territory. Stronger‑than‑expected prints after Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric will lift rate‑hike odds.

· 📊 US July JOLTS Job Openings. Prior 7.674 million, forecast 7.53 million. The pace of labour‑market cooling will shape September rate‑hike deliberations.

· 🇰🇷 South Korea August export data.

· 🇯🇵 Japan 10‑Year JGB auction; final August manufacturing PMI readings for Japan and South Korea.

· 🇪🇺 Eurozone August flash HICP inflation.