Morning Brief: US PMI Surprise Lifts Equities; Iran Dismisses Fresh US Sanctions Threat

【Key Snapshot】

· 📊 Flash US August Composite PMI surged to a more‑than‑four‑year high, buoyed by robust services activity offsetting manufacturing weakness, lifting US equities.

· 🛢️ Iran dismissed Washington’s looming new‑sanctions threat as a desperate move doomed to fail; crude edged higher, with Brent notching a 6.63% weekly gain.

· 📈 S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first weekly drop in four weeks; Dow Jones fell for a second straight week. Nasdaq 100 halted its five‑session losing streak.

【I. Market Outlook】

Key Events

- US PMI beat drives equity rebound: Flash August Composite PMI came in well above consensus, hitting the highest mark in over four years. Solid services expansion offset soft manufacturing data, easing market fears of an abrupt US economic slowdown.

- US‑Iran sanctions stand‑off persists: Iran’s foreign minister stated Washington’s new‑sanctions threat stems from desperation and will not subdue Tehran, adding that the US must engage in respectful dialogue. → **WTI crude +0.26% at $87.06/bbl; Brent crude +0.65% at $94.39/bbl.**

Exclusive View

Strong PMI figures offered markets a temporary reprieve. Resilient services activity underscores underlying economic stamina, and the Nasdaq has ended its five‑day losing run. Nevertheless, long‑dated Treasury yields keep climbing: the 10‑year hit 4.736% and the 30‑year neared 5.3%, meaning pressure from long‑term bonds remains unresolved.

【II. Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: Dow Jones +0.98% to 53277.01; S&P 500 +0.43% to 7674.37; Nasdaq Composite +0.44% to 26180.46. Nasdaq halted five consecutive losses.

‑ European Equities: Pan‑European STOXX 600 +0.59% to 654.18. DAX +0.59%, CAC40 +0.37%, FTSE 100 +0.64%.

‑ Fixed Income: US 10Y Treasury yield +3.8bps to 4.736%; 2Y +4.7bps to 4.232%; 30Y +3.9bps to 5.276%.

‑ Commodities: WTI Oct crude +0.26% to $87.06/bbl, weekly gain 6.86%; Brent crude +0.65% to $94.39/bbl, weekly gain 6.63%. COMEX Gold +2.39% to $4624.1/oz, weekly gain 5.56%; Silver +2.12% to $69.466/oz, weekly gain 6.89%.

‑ FX: EURUSD +0.01% to 1.1679, intraday peak at 1.1711 (since May 14). GBPUSD +0.03% to 1.3633; USDJPY +0.08% to 158.93.

‑ Crypto: Bitcoin surged over 7.9%; Ethereum rose over 9% to $2530.

【III. Macro Highlights】

1. 🛢️ Iran rejects US new‑sanctions threat, demands respectful bilateral talks: Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said looming US sanctions reflect desperation and cannot defeat Tehran. Iran insists any negotiation with the US must be built on justice and dignity.

Insight: Iran’s sharp pushback lowers odds of near‑term diplomatic breakthrough amid the sanctions threat.

2. 📊 Flash US August Composite PMI hits four‑year‑plus high: Strong services expansion offset manufacturing weakness. The data reduced worries over rapid economic cooling yet leaves the Fed limited room to soften its inflation‑fighting stance.

3. ⚖️ US imposes 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods after trade talks collapse: Long‑standing allies traded blame for the breakdown of multi‑day negotiations.

4. ⚠️ Putin warns Ukraine’s strikes on Russian economic targets have opened a Pandora’s box, vowing retaliation: Economic warfare escalates along the Russia‑Ukraine front, creating fresh risks for global energy and grain supplies.

【IV. Corporate News】

1. 🤖 OpenAI fully open‑sourced Codex Harness; ChatGPT gains SMS‑reading capability: OpenAI released its AI‑code‑evaluation framework, while ChatGPT acquires access to smartphone SMS data, marking deeper mobile‑system integration for AI.

2. 💰 Samsung unveils South Korea’s largest‑ever shareholder‑return program, planning to return up to $790bn this year, half of its free cash flow: Record‑size shareholder payouts backed by robust memory‑chip earnings.

3. 💾 High‑end NVIDIA servers projected to rise 15% next year amid surging memory‑chip costs: Higher HBM and DRAM costs are passed downstream to AI servers, extending the “AI‑inflation” chain.

【V. Key Events To Watch】

· 🗣️ US Treasury Secretary Bessent to hold press conference on Iran: Market eyes details and scope of anticipated new‑round sanctions.

· 📋 Bessent may unveil new US fiscal‑consolidation proposals: Focus points include potential Treasury‑buyback expansion and concrete spending‑cut directions.

· 🇯🇵 Japan July CPI (released last Friday; monitor market reaction).