Oil Extends Gains as Iran-Related Tensions Expand Beyond Hormuz to Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait

VG Markets · 2026-07-15T07:40:08Z
Oil Extends Gains as Iran-Related Tensions Expand Beyond Hormuz to Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait

Oil prices extended gains early Wednesday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained elevated. Brent crude rose 1.2% to $85.72 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.8% to $79.98, building on Tuesday's rally to their highest levels in about one month.

Recent developments have increased market uncertainty across several areas in the region:

  1. Iranian military forces reportedly launched drone attacks targeting U.S. positions near Jordan's Azraq Air Base.
  2. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it struck military-related facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. These claims have not been independently verified.
  3. The U.S. military said it conducted additional strikes targeting Iranian military capabilities that it said were linked to threats against commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz.
  4. Iranian officials again stated that the Strait of Hormuz was closed. However, the operational status of commercial shipping through the strait should be assessed based on official maritime authorities and shipping updates.

Market scenarios under discussion

Analysts continue to outline a range of possible outcomes depending on geopolitical developments.

  1. De-escalation scenario: Brent crude could remain in the US$75–80 per barrel range if diplomatic efforts help ease tensions and regional shipping disruptions are avoided, according to Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade.
  2. Escalation scenario: Brent could move back toward US$100 per barrel if hostilities intensify and Gulf energy infrastructure is significantly affected, according to the same analyst.

Priyanka Sachdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova, said the physical oil market currently remains adequately supplied. However, additional disruptions around Hormuz or further sanctions affecting Iranian exports could increase market uncertainty and add to oil's geopolitical risk premium.

Market focus

Investors continue to monitor diplomatic developments and the security situation across the region. Current price movements remain largely driven by geopolitical headlines rather than changes in physical supply and demand fundamentals. Future market direction will likely depend on verified developments affecting regional energy infrastructure and commercial shipping.