Oil Is Surging Again. Is $100 Brent Back in Play?

Oil is suddenly moving higher again.

Brent crude has climbed back above $106 a barrel, while WTI is trading near $94, with both benchmarks gaining more than 2% as renewed Middle East tensions put supply risks back at the center of the market.

The latest trigger is the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S.-Iran talks have stalled after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strategic shipping route. With the Strait still facing disruption, traders are once again pricing in the possibility of tighter global oil supplies.

The Supply Risk Is Back

This is what makes the latest rally different from last week's move.

Oil had previously fallen sharply as hopes for diplomacy and higher shipping flows through Hormuz eased supply concerns. Brent even slipped below $100. But the latest breakdown in talks has quickly reversed that optimism.

Now the market is facing a familiar problem: even if physical supply continues to recover, it may not recover fast enough to offset the geopolitical risk premium.

That could keep Brent supported above $100 and leave WTI vulnerable to another push toward the mid-to-high $90s.

What Could Move Oil Next?

The near-term direction will likely hinge on two things: whether the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, and whether U.S.-Iran negotiations can get back on track.

A further escalation could keep pushing Brent higher, while a credible agreement to restore shipping would likely remove part of the risk premium.

For USOIL and UKOIL, the market has moved back into a high-volatility zone — with $100 Brent no longer looking like resistance, but a level the market is already trading around.