Silver Extends Selloff Toward $63.00 as Bearish Structure Remains Intact

Silver (XAG/USD) dropped over 3% during Asian trading hours on Monday, reversing the prior session's modest recovery and sliding back toward $63.20 per troy ounce. The move reinforces a broader technical deterioration that has been building for weeks, with price action remaining locked inside a descending channel and key moving averages continuing to cap rallies.

Technical Picture: Sellers Still in Control

The bearish case for silver is well-structured across multiple indicators. Price continues to trade below both the nine-day EMA at $66.31 and the 50-day EMA at $72.70 — a configuration where both averages sit above spot price, signaling that any bounce is likely to attract fresh selling rather than sustained buying interest.

The 14-day RSI sits at 34.64, hovering just above the 30-level oversold threshold. This reading confirms that dominant bearish momentum remains in place, though the proximity to oversold territory suggests the pace of decline may slow before the next leg lower materializes.

Key Levels to Watch

On the downside, the first meaningful floor sits at the six-month low of $61.01, recorded on March 23. A breach of that level opens the path toward the descending channel's lower boundary near $57.50 — a level not tested since late 2024.

To the upside, recovery attempts face a layered wall of resistance. The nine-day EMA at $66.31 is the immediate hurdle, followed by the channel's upper boundary around $69.70. Only a confirmed breakout above the channel would bring the 50-day EMA at $72.70 into play — and beyond that, a return toward the three-month high of $90.03 reached on March 10 would require a fundamental shift in market narrative.

Macro Backdrop Adding Pressure

Silver's slide does not exist in a vacuum. A US Dollar Index (DXY) holding near 13-month highs above 101.00, combined with fully priced-in September Fed rate hike expectations per CME FedWatch, is compressing the appeal of non-yielding metals broadly. Unlike gold, silver carries an additional industrial demand component — any softening in global manufacturing outlook, particularly across Asia, adds a second layer of downside risk specific to XAG/USD.

Southeast Asia Trader Perspective

For regional traders, silver's risk-reward profile skews asymmetrically bearish at current levels. With price trapped inside a descending channel, both EMAs overhead acting as dynamic resistance, and RSI yet to confirm a reversal, chasing bounces carries elevated risk. A more prudent approach is to wait for either a confirmed close below $61.01 to validate continuation, or a clean break above $66.31 with volume to signal any meaningful trend shift.

Trader Takeaway: Silver's technical structure remains bearish. $61.01 is the line in the sand — a break lower targets $57.50. Rallies toward $66.31 should be treated as selling opportunities unless macro conditions shift materially.

Sources: FXStreet, CME FedWatch Tool, Federal Reserve June 2025 Meeting Statement