US-Mexico Set Fourth USMCA Round for September as Auto Content Rule Remains Key Sticking Point

The U.S. and Mexico will hold a fourth round of USMCA renegotiation talks in early September, Mexico's economy ministry confirmed Thursday, as both sides report progress on some fronts while remaining deadlocked on key issues — a development that could have implications for the Mexican peso, the auto sector, and North American supply chains.

Key developments from this week's third round of talks:

→ U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard

→ Ebrard cited progress on steel, aluminum, and reducing reliance on Asian imports

→ The renegotiated pact underpins nearly $1.6 trillion in regional trade, per Reuters sourcing

→ Talks could extend into 2027, potentially prolonging uncertainty for businesses and investment planning in Mexico and Canada

Key outstanding issue — auto content rules:

→ Washington is pushing for a 50% mandatory U.S.-specific content requirement for duty-free vehicle access

→ Mexico has rejected this outright, with sources telling Reuters the government won't accept "even 1%" of fixed U.S.-specific content, citing precedent risk

→ Current rules require 75% North American content overall, with 40% produced by workers earning at least $16/hour — a wage threshold already met in the U.S. and Canada

Mexico's counter-demand: Adjustment of Section 232 tariffs — 25% on autos and 50% on steel and aluminum — before further concessions. President Trump has shown no indication of easing these tariffs.

Greer told the Senate Wednesday he aims to secure interim agreements with Mexico and Canada this year, deferring harder structural changes to 2027.

Market implications: Prolonged uncertainty over auto-sector rules of origin could affect sentiment surrounding the Mexican peso and cross-border automotive and steel supply chains. Market participants are likely to focus on developments surrounding the September negotiation round and any White House commentary on Section 232 tariffs, given their potential implications for the Mexican peso, steel, aluminum, and related sectors.

Source: Reuters reporting (Emily Green, David Lawder), July 23, 2026; Mexico Ministry of Economy statement; U.S. Senate testimony records.