📰 30-Year US Treasury Yields Rise Six Straight Days; US Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Since 2014

Key Snapshot

· 🤖 Trump signs voluntary AI safety agreement with tech giants and backs data center expansion; Tehran says it is ready for negotiations, while Trump denies proposing sanctions relief.

· 📉 30-year US Treasury yields climb for six consecutive sessions. Major US indices closed lower. Dow Jones fell 0.26%, S&P 500 dropped 0.17%, Nasdaq edged down 0.08%.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

- Trump signs voluntary AI safety agreement and backs data center expansion: Trump sealed a voluntary AI safety pact with leading tech firms and voiced support for data center buildouts. → AI stocks received policy support, limiting Nasdaq’s decline to just 0.08%.

- 30-year Treasury yields rise six straight days, US equities retreat: Persistent upward pressure on long-end rates weighs on risk assets. → Dow Jones -0.26% at 51349.92; S&P 500 -0.17% at 7670.84; 10-year Treasury yield +1.32 bps at 5.255%.

- US consumer confidence hits lowest level since 2014: The September Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, the weakest reading since 2014. Amid ongoing Middle East tensions and rising interest rates, households expect business and labour market conditions to worsen over the next six months. → EUR/USD dipped to 1.1312, the lowest level since May 2025.

Exclusive Insight

Consumer confidence slumped to a 2014 low, marking a stark divergence from strong PMI and capital goods orders. The gap between resilient corporate activity driven by AI infrastructure and stressed household sentiment squeezed by energy costs and higher borrowing costs continues to widen. Trump’s voluntary AI safety accord and backing for data centre construction deliver clear policy tailwinds for the AI sector, yet the voluntary nature limits enforcement power. The six-day rally in 30-year Treasury yields remains the core factor weighing on asset valuations.

II. Overnight Market Action

—— US Equities: Dow Jones -0.26% at 51349.92; S&P 500 -0.17% at 7670.84; Nasdaq -0.08% at 26797.54.

—— European Equities: Pan-European STOXX 600 erased intraday gains and closed 0.1% lower.

—— Fixed Income: 2-year US Treasury yield -3.51 bps to 4.889%; 10-year yield +1.32 bps at 5.255%.

—— Commodities: WTI November futures -3.48% at $89.38/bbl; Brent crude -2.56% at $102.59/bbl. COMEX Gold +1.12% at $4215.00/oz; Silver +0.21% at $61.84/oz.

—— FX: EUR/USD hit 1.1312, the lowest since May 2025, closing at 1.1340, down 0.26%.

—— Crypto: Bitcoin fell more than 2% intraday before rebounding from near $82500.

III. Macro News

1. 🤖 Trump signs voluntary AI safety agreement with tech giants and supports data centre expansion: The agreement is non-binding, while Trump explicitly approves new data centre construction.

Insight: The policy offers clear support for the AI industry, but the voluntary pact carries limited enforcement. Approval for data centre buildouts directly benefits AI infrastructure investment.

2. 🕊️ Trump denies offering sanctions relief to Iran; Tehran states readiness for talks: Both sides remain divided on preconditions, yet Iran signals willingness to enter negotiations.

3. 📊 US September Consumer Confidence Index falls to 81.9, lowest since 2014: Households expect business and labour market conditions to deteriorate over the next six months. Middle East conflict and rising interest rates are major drags.

Insight: Weak consumer confidence contrasts sharply with strong corporate PMI data. The divide between corporate strength powered by AI infrastructure and household pressure from energy costs and higher rates continues to deepen.

IV. Corporate News

1. 🤖 Anthropic IPO filing: Potential legal claims over rogue AI agent behaviour. Legal frameworks remain unclear. The filing also reveals Anthropic plans to jointly invest at least $518 billion in AI infrastructure with six partners over the next decade.

Anthropic is racing toward one of the largest IPOs on record, and this is the first formal disclosure of legal risks stemming from uncontrolled AI agents, marking a landmark risk disclosure for AI applications going public.

2. 📈 OpenAI annual recurring revenue nears $70 billion, targeting at least $30 billion new funding at a $1.4 trillion valuation: Revenue growth and valuation competition among top AI players keep accelerating.

V. Key Releases Today

· 📊 US September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: Important preview ahead of nonfarm payrolls, will shape market expectations for the Fed’s September rate path.

· 📊 US Q2 Real GDP Annualized Final Estimate: Final confirmation of economic growth.

· 📊 US August PCE Price Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, particularly critical after accelerating PMI input costs.