Brent crude (XBRUSD) consolidates around $72 per barrel, erasing most geopolitical risk premiums from late February’s Middle East conflict. Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize steadily amid positive US-Iran diplomatic talks in Doha. Saudi crude exports have rebounded to 90% of pre-disruption levels, while the UAE restored full shipments via bypass pipelines and regular strait transit.

Citi delivers a bearish long-term outlook: analyst Francesco Martoccia forecasts Brent could slump to $60/bbl by end-2026. Fading strait bottlenecks, weak spot crude demand and smaller-than-expected inventory drawdowns drive the pessimism. Near-term choppiness will linger as logistics and insurance markets adjust, yet tanker operators now view Hormuz transit risks as manageable, unlocking ample crude supply.

Technical Outlook

Brent trades right at immediate resistance $72.00 after an intraday bounce.

—Dynamic support: 20-day EMA at $71.00; a sustained break below this zone triggers deeper retracement toward $69.

—Near resistance: $72.50; a clean breakout only offers limited upside to $74, capped by bearish fundamental supply signals.

—14-period RSI reads 47, neutral-bullish on short-term rebound momentum with no overbought signal.

All technical bounces are corrective rather than trend reversals. Normalized Middle East supply caps lasting rallies, leaving $60 as the dominant medium-term downside target.