Daily Commodities Highlights – Jul 08 – US strikes 80+ Iran targets; Strait security raised to "severe"

📌 What Moves Markets Today

US strikes hit 80+ Iran targets; Iran hits 85 US facilities. US revokes Iran oil license. Strait security raised to "severe." Gold holds $4,130 on safe-haven demand. WTI near $72, at two-week high.

🔴 Oil: bearish on fundamentals, bullish on geopolitical risk.

🟢 Gold: supported by safe-haven demand and dollar weakness.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Kazakhstan plans to extend its fuel export ban through May 2027 → A long-term supply restriction. Could tighten regional fuel markets.

- IEA: Global natural gas consumption expected to fall 0.5% this year → A demand-side signal. Mildly bearish for gas prices.

- Vitol plans to open an office in Venezuela, betting on the US-Venezuela oil deal holding → A sign that traders see Venezuelan supply returning.

- EIA cut its 2026 and 2027 oil price forecasts for both Brent and WTI, expects the oil market to return to surplus next year → A bearish revision from the official agency.

- Saudi plans to expand Red Sea oil pipeline capacity by 2 million b/d, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz → A long-term strategic shift. Could reduce Gulf chokepoint risks.

- ADNOC deepening energy security ties with South Korea through long-term crude supply and storage cooperation → A strategic partnership. Not an immediate price driver.

Metals & Mining

- Uzbekistan's June gold reserves rose to 13.9 million troy ounces → A modest increase. Central bank buying continues.

- Workers at BHP's largest iron ore port will strike on July 16 → A near-term supply risk. Could support iron ore prices.

- Japan Q3 aluminum premium set at $395/ton, up 12-13% from the previous quarter → Aluminum prices are finding support from tighter supply.

- China's June gold reserves rose by about 14.93 tons to 2,346.446 tons, the 20th consecutive month of buying → A strong signal from the world's largest gold buyer. Long-term support for gold.

- US Defense Department seeks to purchase about 16,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate over the next five years, worth up to $300 million → A long-term demand signal for lithium. Bullish for battery metals.

Geopolitics

- Three commercial vessels attacked this week; JMIC raised Strait of Hormuz maritime security threat level to "severe" → A significant escalation. Shipping risks are at their highest.

- The US revoked the general license authorizing Iranian oil sales; related closing transactions allowed through July 17 → Iranian oil exports are about to be cut off. A major supply risk.

- Iran foreign ministry: Some commercial vessels are navigating without coordination and turning off AIS signals, obstructing safe passage. Urges compliance with the MOU → Iran is trying to shift blame while tightening control.

- US Central Command: "Unprecedented" strikes hit 80+ targets in Iran, including air defense systems, command centers, and anti-ship missile positions, destroying 60+ small boats → The largest US strike wave to date. Military escalation is accelerating.

- Iran Revolutionary Guard: Joint missile and drone operations destroyed 85 US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Shot down an MQ-9 drone → Iran is responding in kind. The conflict is widening.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jul 08, 2026

WTI Crude – $72.20

WTI broke above the descending trendline that had capped gains since late June, rallying from the $69.00 support zone to a high around $72.81 before pulling back slightly.

Price is currently consolidating near the two-week high reached in the Asian session. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the $67.14 swing low to the $72.81 high sits at $70.64, while the 50% level is at $69.97, close to the broken trendline and moving average cluster. A deeper correction could reach the 61.8% Fib at $69.30. Stochastic is in overbought territory, reflecting exhaustion after the sharp rally, so a pullback to Fibonacci levels would not be surprising. The 100 SMA remains below the 200 SMA, but the gap is narrowing quickly.

Support: $70.64 / $69.97 / $69.30

Resistance: $72.81 / $74.00 / $75.00

Gold – $4,129

Gold is trading near $4,129, maintaining a bearish bias as price holds below all major moving averages. Price is slightly below the 21-day SMA at $4,139.93, while the 50-day SMA at $4,373.87 and the 200-day SMA at $4,491.31 form a broad ceiling above.

RSI at 44.41 sits below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting subdued bullish momentum rather than oversold conditions. The daily chart pivot stands at $4,126, with the maximum support and resistance range at $3,983.87–$4,247.90. Net-long positioning on gold has decreased, with long-only accounts still long but trimming exposure.

Support: $4,091 / $4,070 / $4,035

Resistance: $4,180 / $4,239 / $4,312

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran conflict – will the tit-for-tat escalate further?

- 🛢️ Iranian oil exports – impact of license revocation after July 17

- 🇺🇸 FOMC minutes – rate path signals

- 🥇 Gold – will it break above the 21-day SMA?

- 🇧🇷 BHP port strike – will it proceed on July 16?