Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 09

📌 Top Story

Trump: Iran negotiations going "very well," deal possible by weekend

What happened: President Trump said negotiations with Iran are going "very well" and a deal could be reached as early as this weekend.

Why it matters: A diplomatic breakthrough would sharply reduce geopolitical risk in oil markets. Prices could drop fast if the Strait reopens.

Market impact: 🔴 Bearish for crude if a deal materializes. Markets will stay on edge until then.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- 🇩🇪 Germany's spokesman: No substantial shortage of jet fuel or other fuels at this time → A relief for European markets. No immediate supply crisis.

- 🇺🇸 US airline fuel costs rose 78% in April to nearly $6.5 billion → Higher oil prices are hitting airlines hard. Ticket prices may follow.

- 🇮🇳 Indian official: Indian refiners are producing 53,000 tons of LPG per day, up 60% from pre-crisis levels → A major ramp-up. India is boosting output to offset disruptions.

- 🇷🇺 Russia plans to cut oil exports from western ports by one-third in June as refineries ramp up production → Less crude for global markets. Bullish for prices.

- 🏦 Citi cuts 3-month gold target to $4,000 from $4,300; keeps 6-12 month target at $5,000 → A sharp near-term downgrade but still bullish for the second half.

- 🇮🇳 India oil minister: More gas expected from Mozambique. Not worried about prices. Does not expect current highs to last. Sees ample stocks and lower prices ahead. → Betting on supply increases to cool the market.

- 📊 Fitch: Sees Brent at $100-110 while the Strait remains closed, falling to around $70 in September. Expects a return to oversupply in Q4 2026. → A classic "front-loaded" forecast: spike now, drop later.

- 🇦🇪 ADNOC opens first tender for local Persian Gulf crude, selling at least 14 million barrels to Asian buyers → A new supply channel. More crude flowing to Asia.

Geopolitics

- 🇺🇸 Trump: Iran negotiations are going "very well." A deal could be reached by the weekend. → Markets are watching closely.

- 🇮🇱 Netanyahu: Tactical differences with Trump, but core objectives are aligned. → No rift between allies.

💡 Technical Analysis

Data source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 09, 2026 03:15-03:17 AM (GMT-4:00)

Natural Gas – $3.175

Resistance: $3.168 (R1) / $3.174 (R2) / $3.187 (R3) → Clear R1 for more upside

Support: $3.149 (S1) / $3.136 (S2) / $3.130 (S3) → Hold above S1 keeps the rally intact

Technical call: Neutral to bullish – MAs: 6 Buy / 6 Sell. Indicators: 8 Buy / 1 Sell. RSI at 57.2.

Gold – $4,348.55

Resistance: $4,367.04 (R1) / $4,379.48 (R2) / $4,385.84 (R3) → Need to clear R1 for any recovery

Support: $4,348.24 (S1) / $4,341.88 (S2) / $4,329.44 (S3) → A break below S1 opens the door to more downside

Technical call: Sell bias – MAs: 0 Buy / 12 Sell. Indicators: 0 Buy / 9 Sell. RSI at 44.9.

WTI Crude – $90.06

Resistance: $90.17 (R1) / $90.42 (R2) / $90.68 (R3) → Needs to reclaim R1 for any upside

Support: $89.66 (S1) / $89.40 (S2) / $89.15 (S3) → A break below S1 signals more weakness

Technical call: Sell bias – MAs: 0 Buy / 12 Sell. Indicators: 1 Buy / 9 Sell. RSI at 33.7, nearing oversold.

🔮 Looking Ahead

- 🇺🇸 US-Iran talks – deal by weekend?

- 🇷🇺 Russia's western port exports – impact of June cuts

- 🇮🇳 India's LPG output – can the ramp-up continue?

- 🇺🇸 US airline fuel costs – pass-through to ticket prices

- 📊 Citi's gold forecast – will the $4,000 target hold?