Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 10 – US strikes 20 targets in Iran; Tehran hits back at US bases

📌 Top Story

US strikes 20 targets in Iran; Iran retaliates with attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan

What happened: US media reported US forces struck 20 targets inside Iran. Iran responded with airstrikes on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. US officials said the latest strikes will not hinder negotiations.

Why it matters: The market is caught between rising supply risks and hopes for a deal.

Market impact: 🟢 Bullish for crude. Geopolitical risk premium is back.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- 🇷🇺 Russia's seaborne diesel exports fell 3% month-on-month in May → A small drop. Russian product exports are holding up despite sanctions.

- 🇮🇷 Iran's power association: Facing shortages of fuel to operate power plants → Domestic energy stress is rising. Iran's own supply chain is cracking.

- 🏦 Wells Fargo: Consumers may be spending 45-50% more on gasoline → A huge hit to household budgets. Inflationary pressure is real.

- 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan energy minister: Kashagan field maintenance will last 35-40 days in 2027 → A lengthy shutdown. Bullish for oil when it happens.

- 🇮🇳 India considering extending petrochemical import tax waiver beyond June 30 → Keeping costs low for domestic industry. A pro-growth move.

- 🇷🇺 Sources: Urals crude for July-August delivery to India at $2-3 per barrel discount to Brent → India still buying Russian oil at a discount. Sanctions aren't stopping the flow.

- 🇺🇸 US Deputy Secretary of State Landau: US is working to release energy reserves and boost LPG and LNG sales to ASEAN → Washington is stepping up as an energy supplier to Asia.

- 🇪🇺 Sources: EU to propose keeping Russian oil price cap at $44.10 per barrel for six months, tightening shadow fleet restrictions → No change to the cap. Focus is on enforcement.

- 🇪🇺 EU Commission President von der Leyen: 21st Russia sanctions package will add 30 vessels, targeting 632 total. Will restrict LNG carrier sales to Russia. → More pressure on Russian energy exports.

- 🇺🇸 US April oil import price: $78.24 per barrel, up from $63.40 in March and 18.4% higher than $66.06 a year ago → Higher import costs are feeding into US inflation.

- 🇪🇺 EU foreign policy chief Kallas: Next Russia sanctions package needs a creative approach. Focus on metals and refined oil products. → New targets are being explored.

- 🇪🇺 EU foreign policy chief Kallas: 21st sanctions package includes temporarily freezing the Russian oil price cap and sanctioning Kremlin-linked institutions. → No immediate market impact.

- 🇺🇸 US Energy Secretary Wright: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising very significantly. Normal energy flow will take months to restore. Oil exports from the Strait and Persian Gulf will increase. → Recovery is slow.

Metals & Mining

- 🇻🇳 Vietnam allows coal miners to boost output to meet power demand → Domestic coal supply is increasing. Less need for imports.

- 🇺🇸 US Trade Representative Greer: Accelerating domestic procurement of critical minerals → Reducing reliance on foreign supply. Long-term strategic shift.

- 🇮🇳 Indian official: Gold imports have been falling since the tariff hike. No further import curbs planned. → Policy tightening may be done. Relief for gold importers.

- 🇪🇺 EU Commission President von der Leyen: Targeting more metals and alloys used in Russian aerospace and defense → Expanding sanctions scope. Pressure on Russian industry.

Agriculture

- 🇮🇩 Indonesia to subsidize 250,000 tons of imported soybeans → Keeping food prices in check. A move to cool inflation.

- 🇯🇵 Japan weather bureau: El Niño 100% likely to continue through autumn → Weather risks for crops. Agricultural commodities may see price support.

- 🇮🇳 Indian official: Fertilizer ministry seeking to double budget subsidies as global prices rise. Does not expect prices to fall. Number of suppliers has shrunk. → Higher fertilizer costs will hit farmers.

- 🇪🇺 EU Commission President von der Leyen: Proposing restrictions and bans on Russian fish → Expanding sanctions beyond energy. More pressure on Russian exports.

Geopolitics

- 🇺🇸 US media: US forces struck 20 targets inside Iran → See Top Story.

- 🇺🇸 US official: Latest strikes will not hinder negotiations → Diplomacy continues despite military action.

- 🇮🇷 Iran strikes US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan → See Top Story.

🔮 Looking Ahead

- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran conflict – will diplomacy survive military escalation?

- 🇪🇺 EU Russia sanctions – details of the 21st package

- 🇮🇳 India petrochemical tax – will the waiver be extended?

- 🇺🇸 US gasoline spending – how high can it go?

- 🇷🇺 Russian diesel exports – will the drop accelerate?