Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 18 – US crude stocks at critical lows; Gold holds near $4,300

📌 What Moves Markets Today

US crude inventories have now fallen for eight straight weeks. Cushing stocks are at their lowest since October 2014, sitting near critical operating levels. The IEA sees a sharp rebound in Gulf supply ahead, but warns the recovery will take months. Gold is holding near $4,300 as the US-Iran peace deal weighs on safe-haven demand, though a weaker dollar is providing some support.

🔴 Bearish for oil in the medium term as Gulf supply returns, but ultra-low inventories could trigger short-term volatility.

🟡 Gold remains under pressure from fading geopolitical risk, but dollar weakness is slowing the decline.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Russia is reportedly importing gasoline by sea as domestic shortages worsen → A striking reversal for a major exporter. Russian refining capacity is under strain.

- UAE plans port expansion to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz → A long-term strategic move. Not an immediate market factor.

- Iraq is preparing to boost oil exports when the Strait reopens → More supply is coming. A bearish signal for prices.

- Angola plans to raise crude exports to 1.09 million b/d in August → Another source of supply growth. African output is rising.

- Iraq oil ministry spokesman: Iraq is ready to resume exports as soon as possible → The market is bracing for a wave of supply once the Strait opens.

- US EIA: Crude stocks fell for the eighth consecutive week. SPR stocks hit their lowest since July 1983. Cushing stocks fell to around 20 million barrels, the lowest since October 2014 and near critical operating levels. → The US storage hub is running dangerously low. This could trigger short-term price spikes.

- IEA monthly report: Gulf supply is expected to rebound sharply, but recovery will take months. The Strait reopening could create a significant surplus next year. 2026 global oil demand is now forecast to fall by 1.1 million b/d, down from a previous estimate of 420,000 b/d. → A bearish medium-term outlook. Demand destruction is worse than expected.

- South Korea will impose zero tariffs on LNG and LPG to combat inflation → A policy response to high energy costs. Could boost imports.

- Azerbaijan: Baku oil refinery hit by fire → A supply disruption. But likely small scale.

- Indonesia plans to officially launch the B50 biodiesel program on July 1 → Major biofuel mandate. Could support palm oil and reduce fossil fuel imports.

Metals & Mining

- Chile central bank raises 2026 copper price forecast to $5.80/lb (from $5.40), 2027 to $5.20/lb (from $5.10) → A bullish signal. Copper demand expectations are improving.

- Zimbabwe approves construction of a second gold refinery → Expanding local refining capacity. Could increase gold supply.

- Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi copper concentrate shipments disrupted by road blockades on Wednesday → A short-term supply disruption. Could support copper prices.

- LME copper fell over 1% on Warsh's hawkish comments and rate hike expectations → A higher-for-longer Fed is bearish for copper.

Geopolitics

- Iran media: Three Iranian oil tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz → A test of the reopening. More ships are moving.

- Trump: Oil prices may fall below pre-war levels. If he is not satisfied with the US-Iran memorandum, bombing will resume. The Strait will open within a day or two. → A mixed message. The deal is moving forward, but the threat of escalation remains.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 18, 2026 04:34-04:35 AM (GMT-4:00)

WTI Crude – $75.05

Resistance: 75.46 (R1) / 75.85 (R2) / 76.22 (R3)

Support: 74.70 (S1) / 74.33 (S2) / 73.94 (S3)

WTI is holding above $75.00 after five days of losses, even as supply concerns ease. The technical picture remains bearish, with price below all key moving averages. RSI at 44.1 is neutral but trending lower. MACD remains negative. The broader downtrend is intact. A break below 74.70 could accelerate selling.

Gold – $4,300.75

Resistance: 4,322.69 (R1) / 4,337.47 (R2) / 4,345.24 (R3)

Support: 4,300.14 (S1) / 4,292.37 (S2) / 4,277.59 (S3)

Gold is clinging to the $4,300 mark. The US-Iran peace deal has reduced safe-haven demand, but a weaker dollar is providing support. Technically, the near-term bias remains bearish as price is trading below the 21-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI near 44 suggests weak selling pressure but not extreme levels. Resistance is clustered around $4,387 (21-day SMA) and $4,464 (200-day SMA). A break below $4,300 could open the door to $4,277.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- Strait of Hormuz reopening timeline – within days per Trump

- US crude stocks – will Cushing fall below critical levels?

- IEA demand forecast – further downgrades?

- Copper – more downside from Fed hawkishness?

- Indonesia B50 launch – market impact?