Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 24 – Iraq ramps up output; Trump pressures oil companies; gold dips below $4,100

📌 What Moves Markets Today

Iraq is boosting southern oil output to around 2.1 million b/d, with the Rumaila field alone contributing 1.1 million b/d. Russian ESPO crude prices have fallen to parity with Brent as demand softens and supply expectations rise. Trump is pressuring oil companies over slow price declines. Gold briefly broke below $4,100 as tech sector selling added to bearish sentiment.

🔴 Bearish for oil as supply returns and demand weakens.

🔴 Gold under pressure from dollar strength and risk-off flows.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Iraq oil official: Southern oil output raised to about 2.1M b/d; Rumaila field output up to 1.1M b/d → More supply is hitting the market. A bearish signal.

- Sources: Russian ESPO crude for July-August delivery has fallen to parity with ICE Brent → Weak demand and rising supply expectations are weighing on prices.

- SOMO: Kirkuk crude exports via northern routes have risen from 4M to nearly 7M barrels per month → Kurdish exports are recovering. More supply is coming.

- US Energy Department: Will provide $17.5 billion in loans to accelerate large nuclear reactor construction → A long-term energy policy move. Not an immediate price driver.

- Russia Deputy PM: Considering banning diesel exports; using fuel reserves → A potential supply shock for diesel markets if implemented.

- Petrobras CEO: January-May production rose 10% year-on-year → Brazilian output is growing. More supply on the horizon.

- Goldman Sachs: Expects US and European diesel profits to fall to $46/bbl and $31/bbl respectively by Q4 2026. Maintains gasoline profit forecasts at $23/bbl (US) and $13/bbl (Europe) for Q4 2026. → Refining margins are expected to cool. A signal that product tightness may ease.

- Sources: India's domestic coal usage in imported-coal-based power plants is close to 50% → Lower import dependence. Could reduce global coal demand.

- Trump: Angry at oil companies for slow price declines. "Justice Department, investigate!" → Political pressure on the oil industry. Could lead to regulatory scrutiny.

Metals & Mining

- Nornickel: Expects Russian palladium output to recover to about 2.7 million ounces in 2027 → Supply is set to increase. A bearish signal for palladium.

- Wall Street tech selloff adds pressure to gold market; spot gold briefly broke below $4,100 in Asian trading → Tech weakness is spilling over. Gold is caught in the risk-off move.

- ICBC: Will stop offering individual precious metals trading services via the Shanghai Gold Exchange → A regulatory/business decision. Could reduce retail demand.

- RBI governor: Gold in forex reserves is for security and liquidity needs → A rationale for central bank gold holdings. No policy change.

Geopolitics

- Oman: Coordinating with IMO to open a temporary lane in the Strait of Hormuz → A practical step toward reopening. Traffic is normalizing.

- US Senate: Passed resolution demanding Trump end hostilities with Iran → Political pressure on the administration. Not binding but symbolic.

- Trump: Agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, no more naval blockade → A major shift. The Strait is staying open.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 24, 2026

WTI Crude – $72.50

WTI extended its losing streak to a third day, trading near $72.50. Prices briefly hit a three-month low of $71.94 before recovering slightly. The decline is driven by supply recovery expectations as tankers resume Strait transits. The bearish bias remains intact with prices near multi-month lows. Near-term support is seen near $71.90.

Gold – $4,100

Gold briefly broke below $4,100 in Asian trading, pressured by tech sector selling and dollar strength. Technically, the pair remains below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart ($4,311), keeping the near-term bias bearish. MACD has turned marginally positive, hinting at tentative relief, but RSI at 37.17 remains in weak territory. This suggests any bounce is likely to be corrective. A sustained reclaim of $4,311 is needed to ease downside pressure.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇮🇶 Iraq output – further increases?

- 🇷🇺 Russia diesel export ban – will it materialize?

- 🇺🇸 Trump oil company probe – market impact?

- 🌍 Strait of Hormuz – more tankers transiting?

- 🥇 Gold – will $4,000 hold?