Daily Forex Highlights – Jun 24 – BOJ minutes signal more hikes; USD/CAD hits 1-year high

📌 What Moves Markets Today

BOJ minutes revealed a member calling for rate hikes every few months, with neutral rate seen around 2%. USD/CAD hit a fresh one-year high above 1.4200 as the dollar remains supported by hawkish Fed expectations. EUR/USD is hovering near yearly lows around 1.1350. The RBA faces a dilemma as Australia's core inflation beat expectations.

🟢 Bullish for USD as rate hike expectations solidify.

🔴 Bearish for EUR as price holds near yearly lows.

🟡 Neutral for CAD despite USD strength.

🔥 Quick Takes

Dollar

- Barclays: Raised end-2026 S&P 500 target to 7,800, 2027 target to 8,800 → A bullish equity outlook. Risk appetite could limit safe-haven dollar demand.

- Bank of Canada: Dollar's attractiveness could lead to persistent imbalances → A warning from Canada. Strong USD is creating global distortions.

- US June manufacturing activity beat expectations, but factory employment hit six-year lows → A mixed picture. Growth is holding up, but jobs are weak.

Euro

- ECB chief economist Lane: Seeing signs of upward price pressure in coming months → A hawkish signal. Inflation risks remain.

- German Chancellor Merz: Will not form a minority government or seek other parliamentary majorities → Political uncertainty in Germany remains. No clear path forward.

Pound

- BOE's Taylor: Staying on hold is the right policy until the picture becomes clearer → A dovish tilt. No rush to hike.

Yen

- BOJ June meeting summary: One member said neutral rate is around 2%, and the BOJ must hike every few months → A hawkish call for consecutive hikes. Markets are watching.

- BOJ June meeting summary: One member said there is "absolutely no reason" to stop reducing bond purchases → Another hawkish voice. The BOJ is serious about normalization.

- Market sources: Japan government growth strategy draft proposes improving management of $1.3 trillion FX reserves → A potential shift in reserve policy. Could impact yen dynamics.

Other

- Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: Warned of rising global imbalances → A cautious signal. No policy change yet.

- Malaysia central bank: Committed to strengthening measures to boost FX inflows → A supportive signal for the ringgit.

- Australia May CPI eased but core inflation beat expectations, keeping rate hike risks alive → The RBA is not out of the woods. Another hike remains possible.

- Bank of Korea: Need to hike rates at the right time to address housing and debt risks → A hawkish tilt. The won could find support.

- Thailand deputy finance minister: Economy is stable. Baht weakness is not a concern → A dovish signal. No intervention planned.

- RBI governor: If we want markets to price in a rate hike, we will shift the stance from neutral to restrictive. Too early to talk about hikes now. Let market forces determine rupee levels; no target. → A cautious but conditional hawkish signal. The door is open for future hikes.

- Trader: RBI likely selling dollars through state banks; may be conducting buy-sell swaps alongside spot intervention → The RBI is actively defending the rupee.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 24, 2026

EUR/USD – 1.1350

The pair is hovering near yearly lows, trading around 1.1350. The dollar remains supported by hawkish Fed expectations and US-Iran uncertainty. On the 4-hour chart, price is well below the 200-period SMA. MACD remains negative. RSI is around 38, suggesting downside pressure persists. Resistance is seen at 1.1575-1.1580 and 1.1600. A break below 1.1500 would expose further weakness.

USD/JPY – 161.65

The pair is trading flat near 161.65. The broader uptrend remains intact as price holds well above the 20-week EMA at 158.72. Weekly RSI at 64.11 suggests strong but not overextended momentum. Support is at 160.00 and 158.72. A break above the all-time high around 162.00 would open uncharted territory.

USD/CAD – 1.4225

The pair hit a fresh one-year high around 1.4225. The dollar continues to outperform as markets price in Fed hikes. The loonie remains under pressure. Watch for any intervention signals from the Bank of Canada.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇯🇵 BOJ – will they follow through on the hawkish minutes?

- 🇺🇸 Fed speakers – any confirmation of rate hike signals?

- 🇦🇺 RBA – will core inflation force a hike?

- 🇮🇳 RBI – more intervention ahead?

- 🇰🇷 BOK – timing of a rate hike?