Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 29 – Russia considers full diesel export ban; US-Iran agree to halt attacks, renew talks

📌 What Moves Markets Today

Russia is considering a full ban on diesel exports as domestic fuel shortages worsen. The US and Iran have agreed to pause strikes and restart talks on Tuesday, easing geopolitical tensions. WTI is trading near $70. Gold remains under pressure at $4,068, below all key moving averages.

🔴 Bearish for oil as US-Iran tensions ease and Strait flows normalize.

🔴 Gold remains under pressure from strong dollar and hawkish Fed expectations.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- World's lowest-elevation ultra-heavy oil field exceeds 10 million tons cumulative output → A notable milestone for China's domestic production.

- Putin admits Russia is facing domestic fuel shortages, considering a full ban on diesel exports → A major escalation from earlier warnings. Diesel markets could face supply shocks if implemented.

- Sources: Venezuela's 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery has had power restored → A key refinery is back online. Venezuelan supply is stabilizing.

- Venezuela interim president Rodriguez: Successfully reconnected most of La Guaira state to the national power grid → Power restoration is progressing. More refinery capacity could come back.

- Australia: ACCC to monitor fuel prices and market behavior as fuel excise is partially restored → Oversight is increasing. No immediate price impact.

- Russia expands dark fleet LNG shipping, using a 19-year-old tanker → Sanctions evasion tactics are evolving. More Russian LNG is moving.

- Malaysia economy minister: Fuel supplies are sufficient through the end of August → A reassuring signal for Southeast Asian markets.

- Europe's winter natural gas stocks could fall to 15-year lows → A warning for winter. Gas prices could face upward pressure.

- South Korea: Plans to shift power system from large plants to renewables to support high-tech semiconductor manufacturing → A long-term structural shift. Not an immediate market driver.

Metals & Mining

- Fed hawkish stance and dollar strength weigh on metals; copper prices fall → Industrial metals are under pressure. The strong dollar is the key driver.

Agriculture

- Malaysia economy minister: Rice supplies sufficient for 5-6 months; staples like chicken, eggs, fish and fruit at least one month → Food supplies are secure. No immediate shortages.

Geopolitics

- Axios: US and Iran agree to halt mutual strikes, key talks to restart Tuesday → A significant de-escalation. Markets are watching for follow-through.

- US official: Technical talks with Iran will continue across all areas of the MOU. Both sides will exercise restraint. Vessels can transit freely. → The Strait is effectively open. Oil supply risks are fading.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 29, 2026

Gold – $4,068.30

Gold is trading at $4,068.30, extending its decline below all key moving averages. Price is now below the 21-day SMA ($4,240.86), 50-day SMA ($4,453.85), 100-day SMA ($4,674.59), and 200-day SMA ($4,479.26). The 50-day SMA closed below the 200-day SMA on a weekly basis on Friday, confirming a death cross. RSI at 36 suggests persistent bearish pressure but not yet oversold conditions. Resistance is at $4,240 (21-day SMA), $4,453 (50-day SMA), and $4,479 (200-day SMA). A sustained break above these levels would be needed to ease downside pressure.

WTI Crude – $70.00

WTI is trading near $70, recovering slightly from earlier lows but still under pressure. The US-Iran agreement to halt attacks and restart talks has eased geopolitical risks. The path forward remains uncertain. A break below $70 could open the door to further downside. Resistance is seen near $71.00-$71.50.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran talks on Tuesday – any progress?

- 🇷🇺 Russia diesel export ban – will it be implemented?

- 🇪🇺 Europe winter gas stocks – how low will they go?

- 🇺🇸 US jobs data – Fed policy implications

- 🥇 Gold – will support hold near $4,000?