🎯 Top Story

What happened: The Indian government raised the effective import tax rate on gold and silver from 6 percent to 15 percent.

Why it matters: India is the world's second-largest gold consumer. This is the sharpest policy blow to physical demand in years. Banks had already rushed to clear 9 tons of gold in May before the hike took effect.

Market impact: Bearish for gold. Physical demand will take a significant hit.

🔥 Quick Takes

⛽ Energy

1. Fourth Qatari LNG carrier unloads in Kuwait since Iran war began → Gulf LNG shipments are barely holding up. Flow remains limited.
2. Iran official: If attacked again, Tehran may enrich uranium to 90 percent → Nuclear escalation threat is rising. Geopolitical risk premium widens.
3. ADNOC CEO: Strait closure has caused a 1 billion barrel crude shortfall → In line with Saudi Aramco's estimate. A consensus on supply gaps is forming.
4. Russia lowers oil production and export forecasts: 2026 output cut by 14.2 million tons to 511 million tons; exports cut by 4.5 million tons to 237.2 million tons → Russian supply capacity is shrinking. Long-term structural tightening for global markets.
5. Lobby groups call for flexibility on EU storage targets → Industry worries mandatory reserves will raise costs. Policy may soften.
6. EIA sees Brent averaging around $106 per barrel in May and June → Official short-term price guidance, in line with bank forecasts.
7. EIA lowers global oil demand forecasts for 2026 and 2027 → 2026 down to 104.2 million barrels per day from 104.6 million. 2027 down to 105.6 million barrels per day from 106.2 million. Demand softening offers some offset for prices.
8. Japan refinery utilization climbs above 70 percent on alternative supply and inventory releases → Japan is adapting to supply disruptions.
9. Vietnam sharply boosts refined product imports: March-April volumes up nearly 17 percent year-on-year; dollar value up 144 percent → Soaring prices and higher volumes are crushing Vietnam's energy costs.
10. IEEFA: Europe could import 80 percent of its LNG from the US by 2028, risking over-reliance on a single supplier → Europe is trading Russian dependence for US dependence.
11. API crude inventory draw of 2.188 million barrels vs 1.654 million expected → A larger than expected draw. Bullish for oil.

🥇 Metals & Mining

1. Indian banks proactively pay duties to resume gold and silver imports: 9 tons of gold and 34 tons of silver cleared in May → Industry is not waiting for waivers. Physical demand is back.
2. India and Russia in deep talks on critical minerals cooperation → Two major economies are deepening resource ties.
3. Chile's Escondida copper output fell 15.75 percent year-on-year in March to 101,600 tons → The world's largest copper mine is producing less. Bullish for copper.
4. India hikes gold and silver import tax to 15 percent from 6 percent → See Top Story.

Iran Situation

1. Iran vice president denies oil spill at Kharg Island → Official denial, but markets await third-party confirmation.
2. Kuwait accuses Iran of "armed infiltration" on Bubiyan Island; Iran says patrol boat had "navigation failure" → Gulf tensions are rising. Both sides tell different stories.
3. Iran: Precondition for US talks is ending the war and lifting the Strait blockade → Tehran is setting a high bar. A diplomatic breakthrough is not coming soon.
4. EIA: April crude output suspended across six Gulf countries totaled 10.5 million barrels per day → Official estimate. Confirms the scale of supply disruption.
5. Iraq, Pakistan and Iran reach energy transit agreement; Iran flexes control → Tehran is using energy leverage to build regional influence.

Other

1. Qatar asks LNG carriers to disable tracking systems at main export terminal → Less transparency. Adds information asymmetry to markets.
2. USDA: 2026/27 US soybean outlook shows higher supply, crush and exports versus previous year, with lower ending stocks → Tighter balance sheet. Bullish for soybean prices.
3. Fervo Energy raises $1.89 billion in upsized US IPO; strong investor demand → Geothermal energy is getting capital. Renewables investment remains hot.

📊 Key Data Snapshot

💡 Final Take

• Three themes stand out today: India's gold tax hike, mixed oil signals, and confirmed Gulf supply disruptions.Gold: India raised import taxes from 6 percent to 15 percent. This is a major bearish signal. Physical demand will suffer. Banks rushed to clear 9 tons in May before the hike.
• Oil: ADNOC confirmed a 1 billion barrel shortfall. EIA sees $106 for May-June but lowered demand forecasts for 2026 and 2027. API drew more than expected. Bulls and bears both have arguments.
• Gulf supply: EIA put a number on it — 10.5 million barrels per day of Gulf output was suspended in April. That is a massive number.
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Final takeaway: India's gold tax hike is the biggest negative for gold in months. Oil remains torn between supply gaps and demand softening. Gulf disruption numbers are now official.

🔮 Looking Ahead

• India's gold import volumes after the tax hike
• EIA weekly inventory data on Wednesday
• Strait of Hormuz diplomatic efforts led by UK and France
• Iran's next move on nuclear escalation
• Impact of Qatar's tracking system shutdown on market transparency