Daily Forex Highlights – Jun 05

📌 Top Story

No single top story identified. Key themes: US labor market softening, central bank policy divergence, and mixed signals on gold.

🔥 Quick Takes

Dollar

- 🇺🇸 Fed's Daly: Forward guidance is not appropriate right now → The Fed wants flexibility. No clear signal on rate path.

- 🇺🇸 US initial jobless claims rise to 225,000, highest since February → Labor market is cooling. A dovish signal.

- 🇺🇸 US May layoffs total 97,000, highest for the month since 2020 → More signs of softening. The jobs market is losing momentum.

- 🇺🇸 Fed's Schmid: The key question is whether the Fed should remain patient on rates → Open-ended. No commitment either way.

Other

- 🌍 World Gold Council: Fed rate hikes could be unexpectedly bullish for gold → A counterintuitive view. Higher rates may signal economic stress, boosting gold's safe-haven appeal.

- 🇰🇷 Bank of Korea: April current account surplus hits second-highest on record → Strong external position. Supportive for the won.

- 🇮🇳 RBI holds benchmark rate at 5.25%, as expected → No surprise. Focus remains on inflation.

- 🇬🇧 BOE Governor Bailey: Markets may be overestimating the speed of AI transmission → A cautious view on productivity gains. No policy implications yet.

- 🇨🇿 Czech central bank raises countercyclical capital buffer to 1.5%, effective July 1, 2027 → A long-term macroprudential move. No immediate FX impact.

- 🇨🇳 PBOC nets 92 billion yuan injection via reverse repos today; weekly net withdrawal of 682.7 billion yuan → Short-term liquidity injection but weekly tightening. Mixed signals.

- 🇦🇷 IMF: Argentina central bank has bought $10 billion in FX since early 2026 → Building reserves. A sign of stabilization efforts.

- 🇵🇭 Philippines central bank governor: Policymakers will monitor latest inflation data before deciding on a rate hike at the June 18 meeting → Data-dependent. A hike is on the table.

💡 Technical Analysis

EUR/USD – 1.1628

Resistance: 1.1627 (R1) / 1.1630 (R2) / 1.1637 (R3) → Clear R1 for more upside

Support: 1.1617 (S1) / 1.1610 (S2) / 1.1607 (S3) → Hold above S1 keeps bull case

Call: Strong Buy – MAs: 10 Buy / 2 Sell. Indicators: 7 Buy / 0 Sell (1 neutral). RSI at 61.7. STOCHRSI at 100 is overbought. CCI at 267 is also overbought.

*Source: Investing.com*

🔮 Looking Ahead

- 🇺🇸 US May jobs report (Friday) – key test for Fed policy

- 🇪🇺 ECB June meeting – rate hike expected

- 🇵🇭 Philippines central bank – June 18 rate decision

- 🇮🇳 India inflation data – RBI's next move

- 🇬🇧 UK economic data – BOE policy path