Gold Set for Weekly Loss as Rate Expectations Offset Safe-Haven Demand

VG Markets · 2026-07-10T10:19:48Z
Gold Set for Weekly Loss as Rate Expectations Offset Safe-Haven Demand

Spot gold slipped 0.6% to US$4,101.11 per ounce on Friday, while gold futures declined 0.8% to US$4,108.90 per ounce by 08:46 GMT. The precious metal was on track for a weekly loss of around 1.8%, despite heightened geopolitical tensions, according to Investing.com data.

Market drivers

Oil prices and inflation expectations: Fresh U.S. strikes on Iran earlier this week pushed oil prices higher, contributing to renewed concerns over energy-related inflation.

Interest-rate expectations: CME FedWatch data indicated that market expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate increase in 2026 strengthened during the week. Higher interest-rate expectations can increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, contributing to pressure on prices.

Overall market impact: Although gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, market participants largely focused on changing interest-rate expectations following developments related to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

ANZ analysts said gold received some support from expectations that tensions in the Gulf could remain contained. However, they noted that the outlook also depends on inflation remaining under control rather than geopolitical developments alone.

Other precious metals

  1. Silver: Fell 0.7% on Friday and was down more than 4% for the week.
  2. Platinum: Declined 0.1% on Friday and was down around 0.3% for the week, making it one of the more resilient precious metals during the period.

Market focus: This week's price action highlights that geopolitical developments do not always translate into stronger gold prices, particularly when changing interest-rate expectations become a dominant market driver. Market participants are likely to continue monitoring Federal Reserve policy expectations, including CME FedWatch data, alongside developments related to the U.S.-Iran situation, as both remain important influences on precious metals markets.

Sources: Investing.com, ANZ Research, CME FedWatch