Indian Rupee Strengthens as Softer US Jobs Data and Lower Oil Prices Provide Support

VG Markets · 2026-07-03T09:37:37Z
Indian Rupee Strengthens as Softer US Jobs Data and Lower Oil Prices Provide Support

The Indian rupee opened modestly stronger on Friday, with USD/INR easing to around 95.26 as broader US dollar weakness followed Thursday's weaker-than-expected US employment report. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined to around 100.78, extending Thursday's losses, according to Trading Economics.

Softer US Employment Data Reshapes Fed Expectations

June's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the US economy added 57,000 jobs, below the market consensus of approximately 110,000. Meanwhile, May's employment figure was revised lower from 172,000 to 129,000.

The US unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings increased 3.5% year-on-year, broadly in line with market expectations.

Following the release, market participants reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve policy tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase by September declined to approximately 53.2%, compared with nearly 64% two days earlier.

At the ECB Forum in Sintra, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said inflation remained "too high" but did not provide a clear indication regarding the near-term policy outlook.

Lower Oil Prices Continue to Support India's Economic Outlook

As India imports a significant proportion of its crude oil requirements, lower global oil prices may help reduce import costs and ease inflationary pressures.

MCX Crude Oil futures have stabilized in the 6,450–6,600 range after declining sharply during June, as progress in indirect US-Iran discussions reportedly contributed to easing geopolitical concerns surrounding energy supplies.

Lower energy prices are generally viewed as supportive of India's external balance and inflation outlook.

Foreign Investor Outflows Show Signs of Moderation

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers of Indian equities during the first two trading sessions of July, with net outflows totaling approximately ₹1,452 crore.

However, the pace of selling has moderated alongside lower oil prices and increasing market attention on upcoming corporate earnings, particularly within the financial services and consumer sectors.

Technical Picture

USD/INR continues to trade above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 94.93, following a breakout from a descending triangle pattern.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 54, indicating moderate upward momentum without signaling overbought conditions.

Key support levels are located near 94.93, followed by 94.76 and 94.07.

If the pair maintains its position above these support levels, market participants may continue to monitor the 96.00 area as a potential technical resistance level.

Why It Matters for Southeast Asian Traders

The Indian rupee's recent performance reflects broader trends across several oil-importing Asian economies, where lower crude oil prices have contributed to improved market sentiment.

For traders in Southeast Asia, developments in global energy markets, alongside progress in discussions involving the United States and Iran, may remain important factors influencing regional currencies.

Technical analysis and market data were sourced from FXStreet, Trading Economics, and the CME FedWatch Tool. This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.Rupee India (INR) dibuka menguat tipis pada perdagangan Jumat, dengan USD/INR melemah ke sekitar 95,26 seiring pelemahan dolar AS secara luas setelah laporan ketenagakerjaan Amerika Serikat yang dirilis pada Kamis menunjukkan hasil yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan. Indeks Dolar AS (DXY) turun ke sekitar 100,78, melanjutkan pelemahan pada sesi sebelumnya, menurut data Trading Economics.

Data Ketenagakerjaan yang Lebih Lemah Mengubah Ekspektasi terhadap Kebijakan The Fed

Laporan Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) bulan Juni menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi AS hanya menambah 57.000 lapangan kerja, jauh di bawah konsensus pasar sekitar 110.000.

Sementara itu, data ketenagakerjaan bulan Mei direvisi turun dari 172.000 menjadi 129.000.

Tingkat pengangguran AS turun tipis menjadi 4,2%, sedangkan Average Hourly Earnings meningkat 3,5% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya, secara umum sejalan dengan ekspektasi pasar.

Setelah data tersebut dirilis, pelaku pasar mengurangi ekspektasi terhadap pengetatan kebijakan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Federal Reserve (The Fed). Menurut CME FedWatch Tool, probabilitas tersirat kenaikan suku bunga The Fed hingga September turun menjadi sekitar 53,2%, dibandingkan hampir 64% dua hari sebelumnya.

Dalam pidatonya pada ECB Forum di Sintra, Gubernur Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh mengatakan bahwa inflasi masih berada pada tingkat yang "terlalu tinggi", namun tidak memberikan indikasi yang jelas mengenai arah kebijakan moneter dalam jangka pendek.

Harga Minyak yang Lebih Rendah Terus Mendukung Prospek Ekonomi India

Sebagai negara yang mengimpor sebagian besar kebutuhan minyak mentahnya, India berpotensi memperoleh manfaat dari penurunan harga minyak global melalui berkurangnya biaya impor dan tekanan inflasi.

Kontrak berjangka MCX Crude Oil telah stabil di kisaran 6.450–6.600 setelah mengalami penurunan tajam sepanjang Juni, seiring kemajuan dalam pembicaraan tidak langsung antara Amerika Serikat dan Iran yang dilaporkan membantu meredakan kekhawatiran geopolitik terkait pasokan energi.

Harga energi yang lebih rendah secara umum dipandang mendukung neraca eksternal India serta prospek inflasi negara tersebut.

Arus Keluar Investor Asing Menunjukkan Tanda-Tanda Melambat

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) masih mencatatkan penjualan bersih di pasar saham India selama dua hari perdagangan pertama bulan Juli, dengan total arus keluar sekitar ₹1.452 crore.

Namun demikian, laju penjualan mulai melambat seiring turunnya harga minyak dan meningkatnya perhatian pasar terhadap musim laporan kinerja perusahaan, khususnya di sektor jasa keuangan dan konsumsi.

Gambaran Teknikal

USD/INR masih diperdagangkan di atas Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 20 hari di sekitar 94,93, setelah menembus pola descending triangle.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) berada di sekitar 54, yang menunjukkan momentum kenaikan dalam tingkat moderat tanpa mengindikasikan kondisi jenuh beli.

Level support utama berada di sekitar 94,93, diikuti oleh 94,76 dan 94,07.

Apabila pasangan mata uang ini tetap bertahan di atas area support tersebut, pelaku pasar dapat terus memantau level 96,00 sebagai area resistensi teknikal potensial.

Mengapa Hal Ini Penting bagi Trader di Asia Tenggara

Pergerakan terbaru rupee India mencerminkan tren yang lebih luas di sejumlah negara Asia pengimpor minyak, di mana harga minyak yang lebih rendah telah membantu memperbaiki sentimen pasar.

Bagi trader di Asia Tenggara, perkembangan di pasar energi global serta kemajuan dalam pembicaraan antara Amerika Serikat dan Iran dapat terus menjadi faktor penting yang memengaruhi pergerakan mata uang regional.

Analisis teknikal dan data pasar mengacu pada FXStreet, Trading Economics, dan CME FedWatch Tool. Konten ini disediakan hanya untuk tujuan informasi dan bukan merupakan nasihat investasi.