Morning Brief: Iran Says No Final Strait Deal Reached With Oman; Nvidia Q2 Revenue Doubles, Tops Estimates

【Key Snapshot】

· 💾 Nvidia posts Q2 revenue of $96.2 B, doubling year‑over‑year and beating consensus. Q3 guidance tops $108 B for the first time. Shares rose nearly 5% in after‑hours trading.

· 📊 US July PCE came in at 3.7% YoY, above market expectations. September rate‑hike odds edged higher. Major US indexes closed slightly lower as markets waited for Nvidia earnings.

【I. Market Outlook】

Key Events

‑ Iran clarifies no final agreement has been struck with Oman, though constructive momentum remains. → WTI crude‑0.16% at $82.23/bbl; Brent‑0.84% at $87.84/bbl, marking its steepest single‑day drop in nearly three weeks.

Exclusive View

July headline PCE printed 3.7% YoY, lifting September hike probabilities modestly, though market reaction remained muted, with most focus locked on Nvidia results. Nvidia delivered strong beats on both revenue and forward guidance, sending after‑hours shares up almost 5%. Investors will closely watch management commentary on gross‑margin trends, Vera Rubin ramp‑up and circular‑financing concerns on the earnings call. Note Nvidia’s stock has fallen post‑earnings for four straight quarters, making tonight’s price action a real test.

【II. Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: Dow‑0.21% at 53463.88; S&P500‑0.02% at 7675.70; Nasdaq‑0.08% at 26130.20.

‑ European Equities: STOXX 600‑0.01% at 656.41. German DAX +0.08%; French CAC40 +0.27%; UK FTSE100‑0.07%.

‑ Fixed Income: US 10‑year yield +2.93bps to 4.668%; 2‑year yield +1.98bps to 4.224%.

‑ Commodities: WTI‑0.16% at $82.23/bbl; Brent‑0.84% at $87.84/bbl. Spot gold fell roughly 1% to $4591/oz, halting a four‑session winning streak. Silver +0.23% at $68.62/oz.

‑ FX: US Dollar Index +0.23% at 99.136, its largest single‑day gain since Aug 6. EURUSD‑0.21% to 1.1649.

‑ Crypto: Bitcoin topped $81000 intraday (three‑month high), closed +0.73% at $78784.

【III. Macro Highlights】

1. 🕊️ Iran says talks with Oman are ongoing with no final strait deal. Sources told Reuters hurdles persist even amid positive negotiating tone.

Insight: Prior reports of a finalized consensus have been walked back. Oil has tumbled roughly 6% across two sessions on mispriced optimism. A genuine risk‑premium removal requires formal deal signing.

2. 📊 US July PCE hits 3.7% YoY vs 3.6% expected. Core PCE 3.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM matched forecasts. Hotter headline PCE lifted September hike odds marginally.

Insight: The print is moderately warm yet unchanged from June, showing no sharp inflation deterioration. Nvidia earnings remain the dominant market driver.

3. ⚡ Trump signs executive order declaring national emergency, banning certain foreign‑sourced hardware from US power grids.

【IV. Corporate News】

1. 💾 Nvidia Q2 revenue $96.22 B, beating consensus $92.17 B. Data‑center revenue $88.5 B (+95% YoY). Q3 revenue guidance $108 B vs consensus $104.19 B. After‑hours stock rose nearly 5%. Key call themes: Vera Rubin GPU rollout, gross‑margin outlook, circular‑financing pushback.

2. 📱 Apple announces September 10 launch for its first foldable iPhone under new CEO Tuanus. It represents Apple’s biggest hardware design refresh in six years.

【V. Key Events To Watch】

· 🇰🇷 Bank of Korea rate decision. Markets watch whether it holds rates in line with the Fed.

· 🇪🇺 ECB monetary policy meeting minutes. Focus on energy‑shock assessment and September rate outlook.