Morning Brief: Trump Halts Iran Strike; Warsh to Be Sworn in as Fed Chair Friday

At a Glance

🛑 Trump pauses Tuesday Iran strike for talks, but orders military ready for “full, massive attack” if negotiations fail.

🏛️ Warsh to be sworn in Friday at White House ceremony hosted by Trump.

📉 US indexes mixed intraday; Dow turns positive post-announcement, Nasdaq -0.51% , off recent highs.

🛢️ WTI +3.07% to $108.66/bbl**; Brent **+2.60%** to **$112.10/bbl.

1. Market Outlook

Key Events

Trump said Monday he had paused Tuesday’s planned strike on Iran after Tehran submitted a new peace proposal, to allow negotiations to end the war. He ordered the military to “stand down from the planned attack tomorrow” but remain ready for “full, massive attack” if no acceptable deal is reached. Trump added a deal is “highly likely.” Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chair Friday at a White House ceremony led by Trump. Russian President Putin begins a China visit Tuesday, with the Kremlin citing “very high expectations.”

2. Overnight Markets

Key Summary

Trump pauses strike but keeps military option; oil extends gains; US equities diverge.

US Equities

• Dow: +0.32% (+159.95 pts) to 49,686.12
• S&P 500: -0.07% (-5.45 pts) to 7,403.05
• Nasdaq: -0.51% (-134.41 pts) to 26,090.73 💡 Dow turned positive post-announcement; chips lagged on Seagate’s capacity comments, while software stocks outperformed (Salesforce +3%). Rotation within tech persists.

European Equities

STOXX 600 +0.5% to 610.17. 💡 Stocks bounced as US-Iran tensions eased, but gains limited. Putin’s China visit is a key focus, with far-reaching geopolitical implications for Europe.

Fixed Income

US 10Y yield hit 4.659% intraday, a high since February 2025. 💡 Inflation expectations + hike risk + Treasury supply continue lifting long-end rates.

Commodities

• WTI June: +3.07% to $108.66/bbl
• Brent July: +2.60% to $112.10/bbl
• COMEX Gold: -0.07% to ** $4,552.50/oz** 💡 “Pause not cancel” keeps oil bid; gold steadies near $4,550, capped by higher real yields despite geopolitics.

Forex

USD index -0.14% to 99.13; EUR/USD +0.26% to 1.1655; GBP/USD +0.84% to 1.3433. 💡 Geopolitical relief weakens the dollar; sterling rebounds. JPY stable near 158.83, with intervention impact muted.

Crypto

Bitcoin dipped below **$77,000** (low $76,051.01); Ethereum low $2,077.80. 💡 Risk assets pressured by geopolitics + rate angst.

3. Macro News

🏛️ Warsh Sworn In Friday at Trump-Hosted White House Ceremony Former Fed officials urge focus on balance sheet strategy over size, not just scaling it. Insight: A Trump-hosted Fed swearing-in is rare, signaling political alignment. Markets should watch QT pace as Warsh’s first policy variable.

🇷🇺 Kremlin: “Very High Expectations” for Putin’s China Visit; Delegation Includes Deputy PM, Ministers, CEOs Insight: “Very high expectations” is top diplomatic language. Coming days after Trump’s China trip, strategic coordination is clear. Iran, energy, and local-currency settlement are core agenda items.

🇯🇵 Japan Finance Minister: Ready to Act on Excess FX Volatility; G7 Discusses Middle East & Speculation Insight: Verbal intervention is muted; real action likely only if JPY breaches 160. Current 158.83 is a “warning zone,” not “action zone.”

🇩🇪 German Finance Minister: G7 “Must Act Now” to Cut Rare Earth Dependence; Proposes Recycling Quotas Insight: G7 shifts from talk to policy. Recycling quotas are concrete, meaning critical mineral supply chain restructuring is underway.

📊 **Foreign Holdings of US Debt -1.5% in March to $9.348T; Japan & China Lead Cuts** Japan: $1.192T (-4%); China: $652.3B (-6%), lowest since September 2008. Insight: Top two creditors cut amid yield spikes—active reduction or passive adjustment? China’s low reflects long-term reserve diversification.

4. Corporate News

🇰🇷 Korean Court: Samsung Strike Cannot Hit Output; 18-Day Strike Countdown, Buyers Panic-Buying May Lift Memory Prices — Rare court intervention prioritizes semiconductor supply chains over labor. Panic buying boosts memory prices, aiding rivals like Micron near term.

🚀 NVIDIA Delivers First Vera CPU Systems to Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, Oracle AI Labs — NVIDIA evolves from GPU-only to CPU+GPU provider. Vera CPU targets AI agent compute cores, with blue-chip clients.

⚖️ Musk Loses OpenAI Lawsuit; Jury Rules Statute-Barred, Musk to Appeal — Procedural defeat, not a ruling on merits. Appeal means the open vs. closed AI fight continues.

5. Key Events to Watch Today

🇯🇵 Japan Q1 Real GDP: Growth strength guides BOJ hike prospects and JPY direction.

🗣️ Google I/O 2026: AI strategy updates; watch Android, Search, Cloud, and AI integration.

🚀 AMD AI Dev Day: AI chip roadmap and client wins shape NVIDIA rivalry.

🚀 SpaceX Starship V3 Maiden Flight: Musk milestone, sentiment impact for SpaceX IPO.