Morning Brief: US August Non‑Farm Payrolls Surge to 162,000, Rate‑Hike Risks Persist; US Equities Edge Lower

【Key Snapshot】

· 🕊️ US envoys held separate meetings with Putin and Zelenskyy. The Kremlin characterised the talks as highly constructive, raising expectations for an upcoming round of Russia‑Ukraine peace negotiations.

· 📉 Strong payroll figures revived rate‑hike jitters. Major US benchmarks closed moderately lower: Dow Jones ‑0.51%, S&P 500 ‑0.38%, Nasdaq Composite ‑0.29%.

【I. Market Outlook】

Core Events:

‑ Non‑farm payrolls hit 162,000, sharply above consensus: The US added 162,000 jobs in August, marking the strongest monthly gain in five months and outperforming every economist forecast. Unemployment held steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month‑over‑month. → US 2‑year Treasury yield climbed 4 bps to 4.37%; US Dollar Index gained 0.21% to 99.17.

‑ US envoys meet Putin and Zelenskyy: US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner conducted over three hours of discussions with Putin. The Kremlin signalled optimism for fresh Russia‑Ukraine negotiation rounds. → WTI crude +0.20% at $91.48/bbl; Brent crude +0.80% at $96.28/bbl, posting roughly 9% weekly advance.

Exclusive View:

August payrolls serve as the first critical data print in Waller’s two‑week monitoring window. The hot reading puts a September rate hike firmly back on the table. The labour market staged a sharp rebound following July’s soft print. With inflation still running above target and oil prices hovering near $91, the Federal Reserve retains more policy tightening room than markets previously priced in.

【II. Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: Dow 53413.60 (‑0.51%); S&P 500 7718.41 (‑0.38%); Nasdaq 26506.99 (‑0.29%). Major indices finished the week broadly flat.

‑ European Equities: STOXX 600 +0.1% to 649.88, weekly decline of 0.8%. DAX +0.17%, CAC 40 ‑0.09%, FTSE 100 unchanged.

‑ Fixed Income: 2‑year US Treasury yield +4 bps to 4.37%; 30‑year yield little moved at 5.24%.

‑ Commodities: WTI $91.48 (+0.20%); Brent $96.28 (+0.80%), weekly gain ~9%. US retail diesel hit a fresh all‑time high of $5.85 per gallon. Spot gold ‑0.97% to $4429.29/oz; Silver ‑1.23% to $66.14/oz.

‑ FX: DXY +0.21% to 99.17; EUR ‑0.1% at 1.1613; JPY +0.29% at 156.24.

‑ Crypto: Bitcoin surged above $82000 intraday this week, hitting a three‑month high, before retreating below $79000 post‑payroll release.

【III. Macro News】

1. 📊 US August non‑farm payrolls came in at 162,000, well above forecasts. This is the strongest job growth in five months; unemployment stays at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM. Labour market rebounded from July’s weakness, September rate‑hike odds remain on the table.

Insight: This is Waller’s first key policy‑relevant data point. Hot payroll numbers substantially lift Fed tightening pressure ahead of the September FOMC.

2. 🕊️ US envoys met with Putin and Zelenskyy; Kremlin calls talks highly constructive. The three‑hour‑plus meeting with Putin fuels market expectations for new Russia‑Ukraine peace talks.

Insight: Diplomatic momentum is building. Though Putin remains open to a settlement, no tangible breakthrough has emerged. Markets are waiting for concrete cease‑fire progress.

3. ⚠️ Iran warns of severe retaliation should further strikes occur. Tehran braces for economic fallout from sanctions, Middle‑East geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

【IV. Corporate News】

1. 🤖 OpenAI rolls out GPT‑6 Astra for premium‑tier users and API developers. Management states the model was trained on over 100,000 GPUs, ushering in a new phase of large‑language‑model competition.

2. 📅 Anthropic delays its IPO to mid‑October. The much‑anticipated listing of this AI leader faces further postponement.

【V. Key Events To Watch】

· 🔒 US markets closed for Labor Day holiday.

· 🇪🇺 Euro Area Q2 final GDP figure release.