Trump Turns Down Iran’s Peace Offer; Oil Surges $3, But Stocks Stay Unfazed

Optimism lingered at the start of the weekend, only to fade quickly. Iran delivered its official reply to the U.S. peace proposal, calling for a full cross-front ceasefire and guaranteed safe vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump wasted no time dismissing the counteroffer as completely unacceptable.

Crude oil reacted sharply to the news, jumping around $3 and wiping out most of last week’s losses. WTI settled at $101.29 per barrel ahead of the weekend developments, and Asian trading on Monday is set to open with a bullish gap.

source：tradingview

Even so, equity markets have largely tuned out geopolitical headlines — for the time being at least.

April’s nonfarm payrolls print smashed market expectations last Friday, driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record peaks. The semiconductor sector rallied 5.5%, also hitting a new all-time high. The S&P 500 has now notched six consecutive weekly gains, its longest winning run in 18 months. Corporate individual stocks also shone: Intel surged 14% on news of a preliminary chip partnership with Apple, while Micron climbed over 15%.

Two major narratives are now playing out, yet the market is only leaning into one.

On the geopolitical side, Trump’s outright rejection signals Washington has little urgency to strike a settlement. Iran’s tough preconditions were always unlikely to gain traction, and the $3 oil rally is simply a rational reset — markets had prematurely priced in a probable ceasefire that was never certain.

On the fundamental side, the U.S. labor market far outperformed forecasts. Earnings season has delivered the strongest quarterly expansion in two decades, with all 11 S&P sectors posting positive profit growth for the first time in four years. AI-related capital spending is booming, and the Magnificent Seven alone logged a striking 57% earnings increase.

Traders have clearly prioritized solid economic and corporate fundamentals over Middle East tensions.